The tariff war as an opportunity

MadridWe're so used to the arguments that we can't quite believe the possibility of substantial changes in inter-party relations as a result of the trade war initiated by US President Donald Trump. But the phenomenon is interesting and worth analyzing. The parenthesis that has opened, particularly between the government of Pedro Sánchez and the PP of Alberto Núñez Feijóo, represents an opportunity for the country and for both. For the country, because it's true that a response with the maximum political and social support is necessary. And for the respective leaders of the Socialists and Popular Party (PP), because now it's their turn to behave like statesmen. Feijóo especially, because he doesn't have many opportunities to abandon the playbook of radical and destructive opposition to play the role of a presidential candidate.

It's true that power is achieved by having previously severely weakened the government. But this is not enough. People must recognize that the candidate to assume the presidency of the executive branch is a reliable person, with authority, judgment, and a certain degree of prudence. That's why all parties tend to have a figure who acts as a battering ram, like Alfonso Guerra in the PSOE of the past, or a Miguel Tellado in the case of the current PP. I don't compare them because they are very different, also in their physical appearance, but they embody or have embodied functions that are indispensable for whoever heads the organization. The leader of a governing political force can't say certain things, but they usually have around them the figure of a spokesperson or representative capable of acting as a battering ram and freely saying whatever comes to mind, without limits.

In part, the distancing from politics is due to the abuse of these types of figures and strategies. Spanish politics has been characterized since the José María Aznar era by practices of radical confrontation, in which whoever holds power tries to keep the opposition from breathing space. That's why it's so hypocritical for the Popular Party (PP) to accuse the Socialists of wanting to occupy institutions, when what they did in the past is essentially the same. And there's little doubt that the PP and PSOE will return to where they came from and once again embark on a policy of disqualification. The question is how long this hiatus will last, and whether it will serve any purpose beyond recharging their batteries before returning to the climate of constant confrontation.

It wouldn't be a bad idea if, to take advantage of the occasion, the government tried to take the floor away from the PP and turn the initial contacts to confront Trump's tariff policy into something more than a more or less one-off agreement and an image boost. The meeting between Sánchez and Feijóo, when the former wanted to hold a round of contacts to discuss increased spending on security and defense, didn't serve much purpose other than to have new photos of them greeting each other at the gates of Moncloa Palace. Now, the threat of a trade war could have more rapid and tangible consequences for many sectors—that is, for many people.

Over the past few weeks, people of all ages and backgrounds have asked me whether it's true that we're at risk of a new armed conflict breaking out in Europe, whether the Russians would be capable of attacking Finland or the Baltic countries as they have done with Ukraine. They don't find it plausible, but they ask, aware that many hypotheses that until recently seemed unimaginable can no longer be ruled out. The fact, therefore, is that what in the recent past would have seemed like political fiction is now part of reality, and demands answers. This is where we will have to act with prudence but also with a certain audacity.

Budgets, now for it?

Domestically, for example, why not try to give a new push to the attempt to have a 2025 budget debate? Everyone had already assumed there would be no new state accounts this year. But it would make perfect sense for Sánchez to urge the PP to include the negotiation of a draft budget as part of a grand bargain in the face of the uncertainty generated by Trump's tariff war. I know that the chances of such a proposal succeeding are slim, if not zero. But after seeing and experiencing so many parliamentary movements and so many initiatives based on simple, temporary interests, why not play a higher card?

Tacticism is denouncable when it serves to launch hypocritical and instrumental maneuvers, when a law or a situation of necessity is used as a simple lever. This doesn't diminish the legitimacy of initiatives guided by a kind of "positive tacticism," insofar as they seek to take advantage of an exceptional situation to find solutions that, in the day-to-day struggle for power, seem impossible. We don't always think that what we're proposing won't be accepted, but we end up giving up on it. Sometimes it's worth it to be told no, because a refusal also reveals the true intentions of our interlocutor.

Now, the Spanish government and the People's Party (PP) have begun to meet and speak in terms that were unusual until just a few days ago. Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo met with the PP spokesperson on the matter, Juan Bravo. The first time Cuerpo invited the PP to a similar meeting, Miguel Tellado showed up. The contact had no positive effects. Now, at least there hasn't been a fight. Many sectors, starting with the agri-food sector, would look with hope to see the government and opposition work together to guarantee stability and outlets for their production.

Sánchez's government already had to face the fight against the pandemic politically alone, albeit with the individual solidarity of many people. The PP gained nothing with its opposition policy, even criticizing the state of emergency decrees for promoting a state of emergency designed for other types of disruptions to democratic coexistence. For the moment, what the PP has done well is to highlight Vox's contradictions. Feijóo already knows that an alliance with the far right is unlikely to bring him to power. On the contrary, it distances him from the Moncloa because it deprives him of any other type of pact. And Feijóo, too, should learn to turn necessity into virtue.