The PKK ends the armed struggle and leaves the Kurdish question hanging in the air.

BeirutThe announcement on Monday of the dissolution of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) marks a turning point in a conflict that has left more than 40,000 dead in Turkey since 1984. But far from closing a chapter, it opens a period full of unknowns about the future of the Kurdish question in Turkey and in the region.

The decision was taken during the 12th congress of the PKK, held in northern Iraq, and responds to the call from their imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, who from prison had urged in February to abandon the armed struggle. The group has declared that its historic mission has been fulfilled: the Kurdish cause has been given visibility, and that now the path must be democratic and peaceful.

The Turkish government has received the announcement with caution. The spokesman for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's party, the AKP, called the Kurdish militia's decision "an important step towards a Turkey free of terror." However, Ankara has yet to provide details on how the disarmament process will be implemented or what guarantees it will offer to former combatants.

The political opposition is also divided. While some sectors see the dissolution of the PKK as an opportunity to move towards national reconciliation, others fear that Recep Tayyip Erdogan's government will take advantage of this move to strengthen its power and further marginalize critical voices, especially after the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

The effects of the dissolution will be felt on a regional scale

At the regional level, the dissolution of the PKK could have significant repercussions. In Syria, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), considered by Turkey to be an extension of the PKK, have begun talks with the central government to integrate into state structures following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. In Iraq, where the government also considers the PKK a terrorist organization, its disarmament could facilitate the withdrawal of Turkish troops deployed in the north. In that area of northern Iraq, where the group maintained its headquarters in the Kandil Mountains, its presence had been a constant source of tension between Ankara, Irbil, and Baghdad. The elimination of this threat could pave the way for improved relations between Turkey and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), dominated by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), an ally of Ankara. It could also reduce clashes between the PKK and the Peshmerga forces, which have suffered both politically and militarily due to the group's actions.

Baghdad, for its part, could see a reduction in tensions with Turkey. For years, Iraq has criticized Turkish military operations on its territory, calling them a violation of its sovereignty. But with the PKK out of the picture, Ankara would lose its justification for maintaining troops on Iraqi soil, a point recently underscored by Iraqi National Security Adviser Qasim al-Araji, who stated that "all armed groups and foreign forces" will have to leave Iraq.

Although the announcement marks a turning point, questions remain about the true extent of the disarmament and the future of the fighters. The Kurdish Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) hopes the government will release thousands of activists imprisoned on non-violent charges and allow the reinstatement of its elected mayors, who have been removed from office in recent years. Another key issue will be the release of Selahattin Demirtas, former DEM leader and a prominent Kurdish opposition figure, imprisoned since 2016. His release would be a key gesture demonstrating that the Turkish government is committed to a real political solution.

Öcalan's message, which avoids any reference to Kurdish autonomy, appears to seek to appease Ankara, which still fears any movement that could fuel separatist sentiments, especially after the 2017 Kurdish independence referendum in Iraq. Meanwhile, the demobilization could facilitate dialogue among ideologically divided Kurds between the PKK and the more nationalist and pragmatic KDP.

The Turkish government and intelligence services are already working on a plan to reintegrate combatants not involved in acts of violence into civilian life, while the details of disarmament are being discussed privately. Although today's announcement is only the beginning, it marks a turning point in the country's most persistent conflict. Now the big question is whether Ankara will seize this moment to move toward real reconciliation or whether it will simply present the dissolution of the PKK as a victory without committing to a lasting political solution.