The future of Syria and the non-survival of political Islam

Among the enormous number of complications in the Middle East, Syria is not the least important. The government of new Islamist president Ahmed al-Sharaa It faces many challenges, and it is unclear whether it will succeed. Its future depends on Israel, and specifically on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has declared it an enemy of its interests. Israeli media report that its army has established at least nine military bases in the Golan Heights, which until now belonged to Syria, which is quite a statement of intent. As for the Golan Heights, occupied by Israel in the 1967 war, it was unilaterally annexed to Israel, a decision not approved by the international community. Although Donald Trump accepted it during his first term

Israel is eager to expand further, not only in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, but also in Syria. The Syrian side of Mount Hermon (Jabal al-Sheikh) is very attractive, and the Trump administration is absolutely in favor of all of Netanyahu's aspirations. Founded in 1982, Al Sharaa has gone through a jihadist phase that ideologically has led it to the current phase of political Islam in the shadow of Turkey's Erdogan. The Israeli authorities consider political Islam to be more dangerous than jihadism, and this is the same situation faced by many Arab countries in the region.

Countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, among others, see great danger in political Islam, a doctrine that aspires to power and enjoys considerable popular support, unlike jihadism. Political Islam is, therefore, an enemy that must be kept at bay and, if possible, neutralized. All these Arab countries have the same interests as Israel when it comes to political Islam. This week, Israel condemned Al-Sharaa's release of Hamas and other Palestinian activists whom Bashar al-Assad had under surveillance in prison, because Assad was also a rival of political Islam.

In this context, it has emerged that Al Sharaa and Erdogan are preparing to create a large Turkish military base in Syria. As is well known, Erdogan has been the main promoter of political Islam in the region, starting with Egypt and ending with Hamas and Qatar, an attitude that Sunni regimes view with concern, as is the case in Israel.

The future of Syria could not be more worrying. If elections are held, it is most likely that political Islam will win, and therefore the country's isolation would be guaranteed. In fact, whether there are elections or not, Israel will not allow political Islam within its borders, as already happened in the case of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood.

The continuation of political Islam in Syria depends, to a large extent, on Erdogan's continuity, which is not guaranteed in the medium termIt's easy to predict that the Turkish president's problems will grow even more in the immediate future, and we're already seeing that his internal rivals have the support of European countries allied with Israel. This guarantees that, on this front, we'll also have greater instability in the Middle East. In the case of Syria, it could lead to an unsustainable situation that could end in a coup similar to that in Egypt—that is, a coup that opposes political Islam and favors Israel.