The European Union is reaching out to China in search of alternatives to Trump.

BrusselsThe European Union's relationship with China is complicated. They are sometimes friends and approach each other, but sometimes they fall victim to mistrust and want to reduce trade ties. Often, the degree of ties depends on the context and the needs of each of the two powers. In Donald Trump's first victory, Brussels looked to Beijing for an alternative partner, but with the pandemic—when dependencies became evident—and with Joe Biden in the White House, there was a change of course and they gradually distanced themselves. It wasn't until recent months, with the return of the New York tycoon to the US presidency, that the European bloc once again tested the waters to recover the cooled friendship with Beijing, albeit with more misgivings and internal division than in the past.

In fact, the EU has classified China as a "systemic rival," but also as a "partner." And, in recent days, it seems that the European Commission wants to delve deeper into the second part of that definition. The latest gesture in this regard was the agreement reached last Tuesday to lift the diplomatic restrictions that both powers had had in place since 2021, when the EU blacklisted four Chinese leaders for the repression of the Uyghur people. This is an important symbolic move that they wanted to coincide with the fiftieth anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Beijing and Brussels.

Before then, however, there had already been signs of rapprochement. Shortly after the start of the trade war sparked by the Trump administration, European Council President António Costa called Xi Jinping and agreed to hold a summit between the European Union and China this year, which has not taken place since 2023.

Costa, who was now one of the most critical voices regarding the establishment of trade relations with the Asian giant, completely changed her tone and began publicly defending them as an opportunity worth exploiting. "I think we can reach an agreement that could even expand our trade and investment ties," said the head of the Community Executive.

In this context, the states most in favor of strengthening ties with Beijing, such as Spain and Germany, are taking advantage of the situation to redouble pressure within the EU in favor of trade relations with China and offset the reluctance of countries such as France. Therefore, at the most critical point of the trade war between the US and the EU, the president of the Spanish government, Pedro Sánchez, traveled to China and wanted to stage the recovery of good relations with China. Beijing on behalf of the entire European blog.

A complicated reconciliation

However, reconciliation between the EU and China may face two major obstacles: the war in Ukraine and ongoing trade disputes. In this regard, the researcher at the think tank Bruegel, Alicia García-Herrero, asserts that the fact that Beijing has not condemned Russian aggression In Ukraine, it complicates relations and even considers that it "may pose a threat to European security." In fact, this is what NATO, a military organization that includes the vast majority of the European bloc's member states, says. Along the same lines, Steven Everts, director of the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), also points out that Chinese exports for civilian and military use "are increasing" in Russia and "contribute, at least in part, to Russian aggression against Ukraine."

In the trade arena, according to experts themselves, the situation is also worsening. García-Herrero warns that "European exports to China are declining" and that they are increasingly "replacing" the goods they purchased in the EU with products manufactured by their own industries. Furthermore, the Bruegel researcher denounces that "European companies are seeing how Chinese administrations are making it more difficult for them to operate in China," and warns that, because of Trump's tariffs, the overproduction that the Asian giant exported to the US could end up in the EU, which would further flood the European market.

Added to all this are the various cases that the EU has brought to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for allegedly injecting billions in subsidies into its private companies so they can sell at even lower prices to foreign powers. In fact, for this very reason, Brussels has reported Beijing to the WTO for this practice in the agri-food sector, and especially in the automotive sector. Currently, Chinese vehicles have tariffs in the European bloc of up to 35.3%.

It is in this context that experts see a major rapprochement between the two powers as complicated, although the trade war initiated by the US is an opportunity. "The problems with China have not suddenly disappeared.