The ceiling that Hansi Flick has not yet been able to break

BarcelonaAtlético de Madrid host Barça this Sunday (9 p.m., DAZN) in a slump after a brutal Champions League elimination on penalties. "My feelings are ones of rage and injustice. But, in my position, the only thing I can do is work so the team continues competing as always," said Diego Pablo Simeone, the Atlético Madrid coach, just three days after conceding against Real Madrid. With barely any time to recover after playing 120 minutes on Wednesday, the Argentine coach has the difficult task of reviving his team, immersed in the fight for the La Liga title, against Hansi Flick's Barça.

The Blaugrana, on the other hand, come into the match fired up. They quickly defeated Benfica with three goals in 45 minutes. This allowed the German to spread the game around—players like Olmo and Lewandowski were substituted shortly after the hour mark—while Cubarsí, suspended for a sending-off against Lisbon, will also arrive fresh at the Metropolitano. The previous context paints Barça as the favorite, and in fact, the Catalan side, on paper, has been the superior side in the two previous matches this season against Atlético. However, this hasn't been reflected in the scoreline: in the first leg of the match, the Madrid side eventually won (1-2) with a goal from Sorloth in added time. That day, the Blaugrana had nineteen shots on goal—seven of them on target—but it wasn't enough against an accurate Oblak. Simeone's team, on the other hand, only had five shots, four of them on target, and scored two goals.

In the Copa del Rey replay, in the first leg of the semi-finals, also played at Montjuïc, Barça overturned a 2-0 deficit in just five minutes to take a two-goal lead and end up drawing 4-4. On that occasion, Flick's men had sixteen shots (nine on target) and their opponents ten (seven on target). In both matches, the Blaugrana had over 60% possession.

Why has Flick still been unable to overcome Simeone?

The German has summed up these results by talking about "his own mistakes" and a "lack of concentration until the end." However, he defended his team, saying they played "two fantastic games." So, what explains why Flick's Barça, who have thrashed opponents like Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, haven't been able to complain about Cholo's Atlético?

Journalist Rubén Uría, who follows the day-to-day work of the Atlético Madrid club, summarizes it in three key points. The first, according to Uría, is Atlético's "intensive retreat": "This forces Barça to play statically much longer than Flick likes." The second, and related to the previous one, is that Atlético is "one of the few teams in Europe that tactically denies their opponents the opportunity to run, especially Barça and Real Madrid." Players who thrive in the open field, like Lamine Yamal or Raphinha, always encounter defensive help when they manage to get rid of their first marker: "If Barça can't disrupt them, there are almost always two defenders for one attacker, through coverage." In that sense, the inspiration of the Barça wingers will be decisive. And thirdly, Uría explains that Simeone "studied Barça's offside line very well to decide when to damage the space created between the center back and the full-back." And thus avoid falling into one of the main traps that the Barça execute masterfully.

For his part, journalist Iñako Díaz-Guerra, who covers Atlético news for the newspaper The World, adds another inseparable factor in football: luck. "Barça, especially in La Liga, were far superior. Atlético have been lucky in both games. In La Liga, they managed to score at the end. The Copa del Rey could have ended 5-3 or 4-5... I don't think the result in either game reflects what we saw on the pitch," he says. Regarding Atlético's success in the final minutes, Uría emphasizes that "Atlético is one of the teams that best manages the five substitutions and how they reach the end of the 90 minutes."

Both agree that for Atlético, the match is "a final" and that "Barça is the favorite" given the circumstances. "But Atlético is capable of beating them, they've already shown that," warns Uría. "For Barça, it's the perfect opportunity to get rid of a direct rival in La Liga, but Simeone has certainly known how to recover the team's morale, and they're playing at the Metropolitano before the break, so he won't hold anything back," says Díaz-Guerra.