Taliban gain control of much of Afghanistan

BarcelonaThe Taliban have gained control of a large part of Afghanistan coinciding with the withdrawal of most of the few American troops that remained in the country. There are now more people - some 11.5 million people - living in Taliban-held areas than in government-controlled areas (10.8 million). The United States on Friday abandoned Bagram, its main military base in the Asian country, located some 60 kilometers north of Kabul and which provided air support to Afghan security forces, as well as being the main logistics center in Afghanistan for international troops. According to the new head of the base, the Afghan general Asadullah Kohistani, the Americans left Bagram in the middle of the night and without previously informing the local authorities. In addition, there are hundreds of desertions among the Afghan ranks and it is feared that a civil war could break out.

The Taliban began their large-scale offensive on May 1st, which was the date by which all US troops were supposed to have withdrawn from Afghanistan, according to the peace agreement signed between the fundamentalists and Donald Trump's administration in Doha in February last year. But the current occupant of the White House, Joe Biden, postponed the departure of US troops precisely because of the unstable situation in the country. Even so, on April 14th he announced that not a single American soldier will be left on September 11th, which is the 20th anniversary of the attacks in the United States that precipitated Washington's intervention in the country. The Afghans have a saying that goes, "The foreigners have the clock, but we have the time". So this is what the Taliban are doing: they know that the international troops will leave sooner rather than later. It's a matter of waiting.

It was already foreseen that the fundamentalists would increase their offensive with the withdrawal of most of the international troops, but it has surprised the speed with which they have gained control of a good part of the territory. This advance has accelerated even more during the last days, after the departure of the Americans from Bagram. As of this Tuesday, the Taliban controlled 193 of the 407 districts into which the country is divided, according to data compiled by the Long War Journal of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. This means they run the administration of these districts, provide services and security, and have also set up their own courts.

In contrast, the Afghan government currently holds only 75 districts, while 130 more are in dispute. This means that in the latter districts the Afghan administration controls only the centre, i.e. where the government buildings are concentrated, while the Taliban would be present in a number of key villages and roads.

Area never conquered

In the last six days the fundamentalists have captured 36 more districts in the provinces of Badakhshan and Takhar in northern Afghanistan, an area they have never managed to conquer before. Even during their regime, between 1996 and 2001, they were unable to penetrate this territory, which has historically been in the hands of the so-called mujahideen. The Islamist factions that fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan in the 1980s with the support of the United States.

In this area, moreover, there has been a real disbandment: a thousand soldiers from the Afghan army have deserted and crossed the border into neighbouring Tajikistan, fleeing from the Taliban. A few weeks ago, Mujahideen leaders-who currently wield great weight in the Afghan government and have their own militias-had called for mobilisation to organise a "second resistance". That is to say, to stop the Taliban advance as they had already done in the nineties.

The desertions show that the Afghan security forces are not willing to risk their lives for the government at a time when, moreover, they no longer have the support of international troops. And if this is happening in the north of the country, it is feared that it will be even worse in the south, which is an area of traditional Taliban influence. That is where this Islamist movement was born.

The American withdrawal in Bagram has fallen like a bucket of cold water. Up to 25,000 people were deployed, including military and civilians. It could be said that the military base was like an American city in the middle of Afghan territory: there was no lack of electricity, fast food outlets or paved streets. "The Americans left at three o'clock in the morning without warning us", Afghan General Kohistani told the BBC. After twenty minutes, the base was plunged into darkness, without electricity. A letter of invitation for dozens of people to storm the base to loot it. The Americans left behind thousands of bottles of water, energy drinks, packaged food, all kinds of junk and even armoured vehicles. Many items have ended up being sold in markets near the military base. A metaphor for what may happen when the withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan is completed after twenty years.