Spain is already looking for a way to avoid the new increase in NATO military spending

BrusselsNATO allies are already almost assuming that they will have to increase mandatory military spending. Russian expansionism and the return of Donald Trump have put even more pressure on partners who spend less on defense, and everything points to the fact that at the summit of the Atlantic Alliance in The Hague next June it will be agreed to increase the minimum rate of gross domestic product (GDP) that the state speaks of It is 3%.

In this context, countries that register a percentage of the GDP lower in military spending, like Spain, are already looking for ways to avoid a large increase in military spending. Among other things, these partners would try to get NATO to change the method of accounting for the money that is allocated to security or would try to include small print in the agreement to have, for example, a greater time margin to reach the minimum rate, according to diplomatic sources from the Atlantic Alliance.

In this sense, some partners want only the military capabilities and operations that contribute to NATO's global security to be calculated and not those that, for example, are allocated to disputes between allies. As for Spain specifically, it is interested in computing more "components" of the anti-terrorist fight, which it assures would allow it to "reduce the gap" in military spending with the rest of the partners because it believes that it is one of the states that spends the most on this concept. However, the State has not yet calculated exactly how much money it is spending on anti-terrorism and to what extent the GDP rate it allocates to total defence would increase. "We are working on this tirelessly," diplomatic sources say.

On the other hand, the partners who are at the bottom of NATO's list in military spending also want the potential agreement to include clauses that reduce the weight and obligation to increase military spending or give more time to achieve it. "We will have to see the elements of the language," say diplomatic sources, who give the example of the Wales agreement of 2024. At that time, the text of the understanding urged the states to "try" to reach at least the rate of 2% of GDP and gave them "a deadline of a decade."

In fact, it is worth remembering that Spain currently spends only 1.28% of its gross domestic product on defence and, although it should have already reached it during the past year, it does not plan to reach 2% until 2029. On the other hand, there are countries that are announcing the current pace of their accession plan and in Spain, such as Portugal, and that's it. There is also the outstanding case of partners such as Germany, which is already at at least 2% and, despite its traditional pacifism since the end of the Second World War, is rearming at a forced pace.

However, the Spanish government has repeatedly argued that The spending rate is not everything. "It is not just about spending more, but better," insist sources from the Moncloa. Along the same lines, Pedro Sánchez's executive defends that it has indeed fulfilled the other two major commitments agreed by the Atlantic Alliance and is one of the "key" partners in terms of defense capabilities and contribution to military operations. However, diplomatic sources recall that in Spain there is currently no "great social pressure" to increase military spending.

Waiting for Trump

The defense ministerial meeting taking place this Wednesday and Thursday in Brussels will be the first of Donald Trump's second term, but European partners are still waiting to see what direction the United States, the Alliance's main partner and controller, will take. de facto. For the moment, according to diplomatic sources, the new Republican administration is adopting a low profile within NATO, at least until the New York magnate sets out the main lines of what he wants for the greatest military and powerful understanding in the world.

In any case, the same sources confirm that Trump has already realized that ending the war in Ukraine It's not as easy as it promised in an electoral campaign, let alone a matter of hours. In this sense, since it is not foreseen as an official point of debate in the meeting, it is expected that the Defense Ministers will benefit from informally discussing potential peace negotiations between Kiev and Moscow, and the possible sending of European and American troops - possibly United Nations Blue Helmets - in Ukrainian territory per guarantee the compliment of a ceasefire or, in most cases, a peace agreement.