Should Trump-Putin honeymoon worry China?

BeijingChina attends as an invited guest Donald Trump's courtship of Vladimir Putin. The turn that Donald Trump has given to American foreign policy by launching himself into closer relations with Russia and straining ties with its traditional allies, such as the European Union and also Ukraine, raises questions about the role that the Asian giant can play.

Washington's decision to quickly restore ties with Russia has shaken international relations. Donald Trump is not only willing to negotiate directly with Putin to end the war in Ukraine, accepting most of the Russian requests, but also bets on normalizing relations with its eternal enemy. The objective includes removing Putin from international ostracism, reaching trade agreements and lifting sanctions on Russia.

Trump's interests would include weaken China-Russia ties formalized with a declaration of "unlimited alliance" between the two countries in early 2022. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio himself has acknowledged the US position in an interview with the conservative media Breitbart News. Rubio criticised that "the Russians have become increasingly dependent on the Chinese" and assured that this was not good, since both countries are nuclear powers.

Several analysts have made comparisons between Trump's decision to get closer to Putin with the policy carried out by Kissinger and Nixon. In the seventies and in the middle of the Cold War, President Nixon established relations with China in a surprising way in a movement that sought to weaken the Soviet Union by fostering distances between Moscow and Beijing.

But both Beijing and Moscow have been quick to publicly show their firm alliance. China has assured that any attempt to separate both countries is doomed to failure. On Thursday, the spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Lin Jian, stated that "it is totally useless for the North American side to sow discord in Chinese-Russian relations" and noted that the strategies and alliances of both countries are long-term.

Even if Donald Trump wants to take advantage of the chemistry he has with Vladimir Putin, it is difficult for him to break the union between Moscow and Beijing.

The United States is concerned China's trade expansion in Central Asia and develop a Eurasian alliance with Russia. Washington would prefer to see Russian oil stop flowing to China to hamper its growth. It also wants to combat Beijing's agreements with third countries in the Global South to use the yuan as a reference currency in trade transactions instead of the dollar. Sanctions imposed on Russia have encouraged Moscow and Beijing to use the Chinese currency.

The division of China and Russia would also weaken the BRICS group, which has been expanding and strengthening economically. In the future, the BRICS may become a counterweight to US interests.

China is also interested in a peace agreement in Putin's favour

But the US is unlikely to succeed in marginalising Xi Jinping. China has been Moscow's main supporter since the invasion of Ukraine, which it has never condemned. Its economic aid was vital to Putin. It was also a good investment, as Moscow's weakness allowed it to buy cheap oil and gas and take advantage of sanctions by flooding the Russian market with its manufactured goods.

Xi Jinping is interested in a peace deal in Ukraine that benefits Putin and leaves the European Union weaker, as it will be more receptive to its trade practices. China especially likes a deal that does not differentiate between invaders and invaded, as proposed in its peace plan.

Unlike in the 1970s, China and Russia are now not at odds with each other and are united by their interest in creating a new balance of global power. Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin share a conception of power and a long-term strategy for their countries. And both are aware that, unlike them, Donald Trump's power has an expiration date.

When Trump manages to end the war in Ukraine and maintain Israel's control over Gaza, he is expected to focus his interests on Asia-Pacific and China, his main competitor. In Beijing, Trump is waiting for an escalation of the trade war. For the moment, the American president has been cautious and has limited himself to making big headlines. He has imposed tariffs, although lower than those promised during the election campaign, while making concessions such as reversing the ban on TikTok.

It remains to be seen whether Xi Jinping is worried or is simply waiting on hold, waiting for Trump himself, with the help of partners such as Putin or Netanyahu, to make his wishes of ending the current world order a reality.