MoscowRussia and Ukraine have separately agreed with the United States to halt attacks on the Black Sea, but the Kremlin's demands make the initiative difficult to achieve. A priori, Moscow and Kiev supported the measure announced by the White House in two statements following meetings in Saudi Arabia. The parties commit to "guarantee safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea," while agreeing to "develop measures to prohibit airstrikes against Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities."
However, as it did with the proposed 30-day partial ceasefire, the Kremlin imposes conditions that are very difficult to comply with. In another statement, the Russian government warns that the truce will only take effect after the lifting of sanctions on "financial organizations involved in guaranteeing international trade operations in food products and fertilizers." This obstacle was one of the arguments Moscow gave forBreak the previous initiative for a truce in the Black Sea in 2023. It also calls for the lifting of sanctions "on companies that produce and export food" and "Russian-flagged ships involved in the trade of food products," in addition to the end of restrictions on "the supply of agricultural machinery to Russia." All of these measures not only involve the United States but also require the cooperation of the European Union.
Earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had already asked for guarantees that Ukraine would not violate the maritime ceasefire. "We will need clear guarantees when resuming the Black Sea initiative, which can only be the result of an order from Washington to Zelensky," he said on state television.
Pending the US reaction to Moscow's demands, the White House statement provides a general outline of some of the Russian requests. The text states that the US government "will help restore Russia's access to the global agricultural and fertilizer export market, lower maritime insurance costs, and facilitate access to ports and payment systems."
On the Ukrainian side, Volodymyr Zelensky believes the truce should begin as soon as the United States announces it. "After the US side officially issues a statement, the decisions already implemented in this document can begin," Zelensky said. Furthermore, Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov warned that any movement of Russian warships beyond the eastern Black Sea would be considered a violation of the agreements and, in this case, would give rise to the right to self-defense.
No details on the truce on energy facilities
Regarding the ceasefire on energy infrastructure, it is also unclear how it will be implemented. Defining measures to enforce this truce was one of the objectives pursued by the Ukrainian delegation in Saudi Arabia after Putin unilaterally declared it. Furthermore, the text does not mention extending the ceasefire to civilian infrastructure, as Kiev has requested.
Another point where there is no agreement is the date on which this truce would have come into effect. According to the Kremlin, the ceasefire began on March 18, following the call between Putin and Trump, and will last 30 days "with the possibility of extending or withdrawing the agreement in the event of non-compliance by one of the parties." From Zelensky's perspective, however, the ceasefire begins this Tuesday. "There is no faith in the Russians here, but I believe we will be constructive and do our work to implement the agreement reached at the Ukrainian-American meeting," the Ukrainian president said.
In recent hours, the Kremlin has once again accused Ukraine of violating the energy truce with several drones launched in the last 72 hours against oil and gas plants in Krasnodar, Crimea, and Belgorod. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, "by continuing daily attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, Zelensky confirms his inability to negotiate and his lack of control." Meanwhile, on Monday, the Russian military injured 101 people, including 23 children, in a bombing that hit a hospital and a school in the Ukrainian town of Sumi.
In their statements, both Russia and the United States also express their gratitude to third countries that have offered to facilitate the implementation of the energy and maritime truces. This is the case of Turkey, which already acted as a mediator in the first grain agreement and allowed safe navigation in the Black Sea. Both statements reaffirm the parties' commitment "to continue working to achieve a lasting peace."
In the case of Ukraine, the White House adds a commitment "to assist in the exchange of prisoners of war, the release of civilian prisoners, and the return of forcibly displaced Ukrainian children."
What has happened to Ukrainian grain since the end of the Black Sea Grain Agreement?
In July 2023, Russia unilaterally broke the grain export agreement, which guaranteed that Ukrainian ships could continue to traverse the Black Sea without being attacked by Moscow, provided they were not loaded with weapons. Since then, ports have been left unprotected, and vessels were once again vulnerable to attack. What impact has this had on Ukrainian grain exports?
That summer, Ukrainian grain sales abroad plummeted. But since Kiev—with aid from the European Union—has managed to find other ways to sell its grain production.
The new routes, launched in August 2023, followed the western coast of the Black Sea, from Odessa to the Bosphorus Strait, passing through the territorial waters of Romania and Bulgaria. Although not impervious to any Kremlin attack, this strategy offers a double security: first, the countries it passes through are NATO members; and second, the waters it traverses are too shallow for Russian submarines to operate.
At the same time, Brussels launched the solidarity rail program to allow Ukraine to transport grain overland or via barges at Danube River ports.
