Russia and US move closer as they decide Ukraine's future

BarcelonaThe United States and Russia sat down for the first time in three years at a negotiating table on Tuesday in Saudi Arabia, thus staging the restoration of high-level diplomatic relations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his American counterpart, Marco Rubio, spoke of Ukraine – without Ukraine and without Europe – and prepared the ground for a future meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, which should kick off negotiations for a ceasefire.

The meeting lasted four and a half hours, and afterwards Lavrov was optimistic: "We have not only listened to each other, we have heard each other." For his part, Rubio stressed that they have agreed to work to establish a framework to achieve peace in Ukraine, but also to explore "the economic and investment opportunities that will arise from a successful end to the conflict." The United States and Russia have agreed to increase the staff of their embassies to reactivate bilateral relations and continue talks to pave the way for the meeting between Trump and Putin. They have also decided to formally open the consultation process, which will begin when the respective negotiating teams are announced.

The talks should serve to achieve a "permanent end to the war" and should therefore cover the key issues: security guarantees for Ukraine and the question of territories under Russian occupation. But most importantly, Putin now has his own dialogue with the United States and has bypassed Europe. European powers have entered crisis mode

Lavrov has described the talks as "constructive" and hinted that lifting Kremlin sanctions is also being explored. He has confirmed that Russia will not accept the deployment of NATO or EU troops in Ukraine: "We will not allow it and it is not acceptable." And he has insisted that Ukraine's entry into NATO would be "a direct threat to Russia's sovereignty and interests."

Paradigm shift

Lesia Ogryzko, a Ukrainian researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, explains to ARA the depth of the paradigm shift. "The tragedy is that the Trump administration sees Russia as part of the solution, not the problem. They see themselves as negotiators between two parties in conflict, not as the ally of a victim they represent and who needs their protection. This logic leads to the United States breaking with the Western bloc to meet and negotiate with a war criminal, something that Puig does not want to do." For the researcher, "Trump is desperately seeking a quick agreement and does not wait to consult the Ukrainians or the Europeans."

One of Russia's objectives was for the meeting to serve to address the relaxation of economic sanctions on Moscow in the wake of the war. The Russian delegation in Riyadh includes Kiril Dmitriev, a 49-year-old investor and friend of Putin's daughter. He did not attend the meeting with Rubio, but held parallel talks in the Saudi capital. Saying that US energy companies "have no reason not to take advantage of the access to Russian natural resources" offered by the Kremlin, Dmitriev said the meeting had served to launch a "very positive and constructive dialogue."

As the negotiations mature, few details have emerged, but the message is unequivocal: Moscow and Washington do not need the approval of Europe or Kiev to decide on key issues in the war in Ukraine, such as whether Kiev should hand over part of the territory occupied by Russia (one fifth of the country's surface) or a new invasion (and another bite of territory) by Moscow. In Kiev they know that Putin wants to prevent Ukraine from being able to decide its future at all costs, and they fear that a peace without guarantees will only be a truce until the next attack.

The exclusion of Kiev and its European allies from the negotiating table is a victory for Putin. The clues Trump has dropped are not positive for Ukraine or Europe: has ruled out Ukraine's integration into NATO and also the recovery of all the territory invaded by Russia.

Rubio and Lavrov met at the Diriyah Congress Palace, hosted by the Saudi monarchy's foreign ministers. This format would have been unthinkable just five years ago, after the murder of journalist and opposition leader Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, a crime that prompted condemnation around the world and the cooling of relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. Joe Biden called Bin Salman a "pariah", although after winning the elections He visited him in Riyadh to rehabilitate him and renew the oil agreements.

Peace without Europe?

But even if Trump wants to go for the right, it does not seem feasible that an agreement without involving Ukraine or European partners can last long. Russian political scientist Kirill Shamiev explains to ARA that "a ceasefire cannot be agreed without the Ukrainians, because even if the United States were to withdraw its military support from Ukraine immediately, they would continue to defend themselves with a guerrilla war that would lead to more bloodshed." As for the EU, it must be taken into account that it is Europe that imposes most of the sanctions on Russia. Rubio himself has admitted that, for this reason, "the EU will have to sit at the (negotiating) table at some point, because they have sanctions that they have imposed."

For Shamiev, "we must stop talking about a peace agreement and start debating the regional security framework that Putin wants to achieve." "And that is where European countries have an essential role," he recalls. That is why he believes that "sooner or later the European countries will find a way to be part of the negotiations, because when the important issues are reached there will be mutual recognition."

"Kiiv has a very clear position that it will not agree on anything without Europe," adds Ogryzko. The problem is that Europe does not speak with one voice, as has been demonstrated with regard to the dispatch of troops. The researcher defends the option that what cannot be done with the support of the Twenty-Seven should be done with the "coalition of those who have the will" to support Ukraine, who should demonstrate that they are willing to act "so that the security of the continent is the responsibility of the European states."

Ogryzko believes that this involves "increasing military spending, boosting the arms industrial complex and acting to fill the void of the US withdrawal, but also a strategy of deterrence of Russia that combines European troops on the ground and a significant increase in military support in Ukraine."

Zelensky wants security guarantees

While the US and Russia were negotiating over his country, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara. Turkey, like the Saudis, has good relations with both the US and Russia. "We want the war to end. But we want the end to be based on certain security guarantees. We expect the US, the EU, Turkey and the whole of Europe to give us these guarantees," Zelensky said at the opening ceremony of the new embassy in Turkey. "We will never, under any circumstances, recognise our territories under temporary occupation as part of Russia," he warned. Zelensky announced that he had cancelled a trip planned for Wednesday to Riyadh, although he hopes to meet with a US delegation later this week in Kiev.

It is difficult to imagine what alternative security guarantees to NATO membership could convince the Ukrainians: there are bilateral agreements, but they are insufficient; The idea of European peacekeeping troops is also being discussed, but there is no agreement on this either; the proposal for Franco-British troops is unlikely to be a reality without US support, and the other options on the table, such as sending Chinese soldiers, seem unrealistic. Russia continues to demand that Ukraine be kept out of the Atlantic Alliance, and there is no alternative plan for now: this will undoubtedly be one of the key issues in the negotiations that are now opening.