Merz gets off to a bad start as chancellor

German reliability and predictability have long been a cliché, but the truth is that no one expected what happened this morning in the Bundestag, where chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz obtained only 310 votes out of the 328 votes for the Grand Coalition between the CDU and the SPD, failing to secure the majority needed to be elected. Dismay gripped German politics, as no one clarified who the dissident MPs were who refused to follow their party's slogan or their reasons for boycotting. The fact is that the vote was repeated in the afternoon, and then Merz did receive 325 votes, nine more than the necessary 316.

This troubled start to the term, however, represents a sign of the fragility of the coalition, which was unable to even ensure a smooth investiture vote. The fact that even the motives for the rebellion are currently unknown adds uncertainty to a parliamentary majority that, on paper, was supposed to guarantee stability not only in Germany but also in the European Union at a crucial moment.

At this point, it's unknown what will happen when the government has to approve the commitments included in the governing agreement, such as the tightening of immigration policy or the increase in defense spending and other areas to revive the German economy. It's unknown whether the dissent has been temporary or will continue. Whether it comes from the left wing of the SPD (the most likely hypothesis) or the right wing of the CDU (perhaps in favor of moving closer to the far right of the AfD?). All this confusion comes at a very delicate moment, when the European Union needs strong leadership and political cohesion, a formula that the German Grand Coalition seemed to guarantee.

We hope that all this is nothing more than a scare and that the coalition begins to function from day one with more success than the previous one led by Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, who found himself paralyzed by its internal contradictions. The agreement between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats is the product of a compromise. The SPD accepts the right's postulates on immigration, and the right accepts Keynesian prescriptions for the economy, thus abandoning the German conservatives' long-standing obsession with fiscal balance, which, according to some experts, is what has caused the self-induced recession that Germany is currently suffering.

But the most important thing is that Merz, along with France's Emmanuel Macron, become the leader who will advance the European Union toward greater levels of strategic autonomy, who will stand up to Donald Trump's boasting and maintain support for Ukraine in the face of Vladimir's expansionist ambitions. Due to his specific weight, Merz must assume greater responsibility than his predecessor, who never seemed to live up to what was asked of him. However, to do so, he will first have to clean up his own house and ensure that he has a stronger parliamentary majority than what was seen this Tuesday.