Lithuania strengthens NATO's Achilles heel for fear of a Putin attack
Located between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus, this territory is considered one of the places most at risk of military attack in Europe.
BerlinLithuania is taking steps to strengthen the Suwalki Corridor to deter Russia from launching a potential attack against the European Union or NATO in this territory, considered by many military experts to be the Achilles' heel of the Atlantic Alliance. This corridor, about 100 kilometers wide and bordering Poland and Lithuania, is located between the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad and Belarus, Russia's main ally.
"This is a vital land corridor between the heart of Europe and some of NATO's most exposed members, the Baltic states. If Russia were to attack any of the three Baltic states, the only land reinforcement route would pass through the Suwalki Corridor," John R. Deni, an expert at the United States Army War College (USAWC), told ARA.
The Lithuanian government plans to strengthen the road network in the Suwalki Corridor by mid-2028 to adapt it to military mobility, facilitating troop and cargo movements and supporting possible civilian evacuations in the event of war.
The Via Baltica, connecting Warsaw and Tallinn (Estonia), is the main road connection between the Baltic countries and Poland. In coordination with the Polish authorities, Lithuania plans to specifically strengthen a secondary route, which crosses the corridor and connects Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, and Augustów in northeastern Poland.
This second corridor would offer an alternative route to Western Europe through Poland if the so-called Via Baltica were to become blocked or if it were needed for other purposes in the event of a crisis. Deni believes the Suwalki corridor has the "potential" to become "the most dangerous place in the world."
Border reinforcement
In addition to improving the second route of the Suwalki Corridor to adapt it to military mobility, the Lithuanian government will also reinforce its borders with Kaliningrad and Belarus. Therefore, it will increase road checkpoints and place, for example, cement blocks to hinder passage.
"Thanks to [Vladimir] Putin's disastrous invasion of Ukraine, most of the Russian ground forces that were in Kaliningrad and the western part of Russia have been redeployed to fight in Ukraine. This means that today Russia could have problems closing," Deni said.
But the expert warns that "if the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will undoubtedly redeploy these military assets back to where they were previously based and will once again raise the specter of a conflict centered around the Suwalki Corridor."
Lithuania, which gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1990, has been a member of the European Union and NATO since 2004. Fears of a Russian invasion of the Baltic states arose after the annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula in 2014. It increased as a result of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, launched by Moscow on February 24, 2022, and which is still ongoing three years later.
Thirty hours to isolate the Baltics
According to a report by the think tank According to the American Rand Corporation, Russian military forces would need between 30 and 60 hours to cut off Riga and Tallinn. Although improvements in road and rail transport through the Suwalki Corridor are "vitally important to the security of the allies," Deni doubts "that they alone will deter Russia: only sufficient allied military forces on the ground, from several allies, including Spain, will convince Putin otherwise.
"If Putin knows that there are several allies willing and able to defend the Baltic states and Poland, he is much less likely to attack. "Widespread solidarity among allies is the key to successfully deterring Putin, denying him the possibility of a quick victory or a fait accompli," he warns.
In the event of a Russian attack on the Suwalki Corridor, Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which establishes the principle of collective defense among NATO members, would be activated. Other experts believe that in the event of an open conflict with Moscow in the Suwalki Corridor, Kaliningrad runs as much risk of isolation and blockade by NATO as the Baltic countries do from Russia.