Lebanon bids farewell to Nasrallah amid uncertainty over Hezbollah's future

BeirutHezbollah needs a mass bath like the one it had on Sunday to try to reverse the defeat in the recent war against Israel. Despite the tens of thousands of Lebanese who flocked to the Beirut Sports City stadium, which was converted into a wake for Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who died last September, the Shiite militia has lost its popularity. The absence of Lebanon's leading non-Shiite political figures, including the president of the republic, Joseph Aoun, a Maronite Christian, and the prime minister, Nawaf Salam, a Sunni, is a sign that Hezbollah, an ally of Iran, is walking alone.

The scenery, with stands full of supporters inside and outside the stadium, giant screens playing old speeches by Hassan Nasrallah and deafening applause to the cry of "Labeika and Nasrallah("We are at your command, Nasrallah"), failed to intimidate the Israeli fighters that flew low over Beirut before, during and after the ceremony and launched air strikes in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. Huge curtains opened to let through the trucks that They were carrying the coffins of Hezbollah's leader and his fleeting successor, Hashem Saffedin., which met the same fate in mid-October. The Shiite community, which was unable to give its leader a proper farewell in September, was finally able to pay its final respects. Women dressed in black cried inconsolably, throwing flowers as coffins draped with the movement's yellow flag passed by, while men, beating their chests, cried "The resistance is not dead, it is dead in Israel, it is dead in America!"

But post-conflict Lebanon is emerging with a strong dependence on the West and the Trump administration, which has promised the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the south of the country, Although Tel Aviv maintains soldiers at five strategic points on the border. Washington, guarantor of a ceasefire violated countless times by Benjamin Netanyahu, is the main sponsor of the Lebanese army, which it has trained and financed for rapid deployment on the border.

Dependence on the West

Israel, determined to completely eradicate the Lebanese resistance movement, has put pressure on the United States to the point of tying the Lebanese government to its feet. The diplomatic crisis between Tehran and Beirut reflects this: Lebanon has banned two Iranian planes from landing at the country's only Rafic Hariri International Airport after Israel threatened to bomb it if Hezbollah received funding or weapons from Iran. In this context of political and economic suffocation, the new secretary general of the pro-Iranian group, Naïm Kassem, reiterated at the funeral that "resistance is essential and remains our right as long as employment persists. We will give diplomacy a chance and then we will decide."

Hezbollah's future in Lebanon is marked by uncertainty. Its support base among the Shiites is weakening and its political isolation, together with international pressure, is forcing it to reconsider its strategy. With the economy and half the country in ruins and in need of international aid, the movement faces a dilemma of having to moderate its stance to ensure stability or remain faithful to its role as a resistance, which risks weakening itself internally. In a fractured and externally dependent Lebanon, Hezbollah's ability to adapt will determine its political survival in the years to come.

As tens of thousands of Lebanese mourned the passing of their charismatic leader, the Israeli army's Arab spokesman, Avichay Adraee, launched a provocation on social media: "Are you mourning a man who turned Lebanon into a failed state? The one who sold the future to secure Iran's interests? Who destroyed the economy and ruined the country?" Words that reflect Israel's position, but also raise a central question: can Hezbollah continue to hold on to its power in a country on the brink of collapse?