Why has violence erupted again in Syria?

BeirutThe political transition in Syria, following the fall of Bashar al-Assad last December, has led to a spiral of violence that is putting the new interim government of Ahmed al-Sharaa to the test. Despite promises of stability and reconciliation, the recent wave of massacres against the Alawite community The attack has exposed the regime's inability to guarantee security and effective control of the country. The militias that helped overthrow Assad, far from demobilising, have acted with impunity in the territories under their control and have committed crimes that have caused more than 1,300 deaths and the displacement of thousands of people.

The attacks have focused on the coastal regions, historic strongholds of Alawites loyal to the former regime, where the Suleiman Shah Brigade and the Al Hamza Division have executed civilians for sectarian reasons, while the security forces of the new government have looked the other way. Despite the gravity of the events, the interim president's response has been lukewarm. Al Sharaa has announced the formation of a committee to investigate the massacres and has promised to punish those responsible, but doubts about the impartiality of this initiative have generated scepticism inside and outside the country.

Sectarian violence remains a threat to Syria's stability. The granting of amnesties to soldiers of the former regime has created tension in the ranks of the new administration, where the most radical sectors see the gesture as a betrayal and have decided to take justice into their own hands.

"Al Sharaa is caught between two fires," warns Michel Touma, an expert at the American University of Beirut. "On the one hand, the most radical in its own ranks, who reject the amnesty, and, on the other, those who really want to turn the page." For Touma, this situation prevents "any serious effort at reconciliation because the Alawite communities and other minorities do not see the new regime as a guarantee of security."

The violence has had a terrible impact on the civilian population. Thousands of Alawites have fled from the Syrian coast to northern Lebanon, seeking refuge in extremely precarious conditions. This humanitarian crisis not only aggravates the already delicate situation in Syria, but also creates tension in the neighbouring country, which fears that the Syrian sectarian conflict will spread to its territory. If Al Sharaa fails to consolidate full control over the militias and disarm the factions that continue to operate outside of authority, its administration risks becoming another player in the Syrian chaos.

The Kurds, a key role

In this context, the new government has announced an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) that could be interpreted as an attempt to project stability amid the chaos. The pact between Al Sharaa and the SDF, which have decided to integrate their armed forces into the Syrian army and also join the Syrian institutional structures, gives the central government control of the northeast of the country and could include key border crossings and oil and gas fields.

The integration of the SDF into the Syrian army means the disappearance of one of the last bastions of Kurdish autonomy in Syria, which the regime seeks to consolidate its authority. But this move does not resolve the threat posed by other militias, which continue to operate outside the state. The role of the Kurds in this new scenario is key. For years, the SDF, with the support of the United States, consolidated control in the northeast of the country, establishing a model of self-government based on decentralized structures. Their joining the army represents both an opportunity and a risk. On the one hand, it formalises their role in the state, granting them a certain degree of recognition. On the other, it subjects them to the authority of a regime that could, in the future, revoke their acquired rights or marginalise their political aspirations.

Furthermore, the pact with the SDF has international implications. Turkey, which sees this militia as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), has expressed discontent. Although PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan has recently called for disarmament, Ankara continues to perceive any strengthening of Kurdish influence in Syria as a threat to its national security. While the deal could reduce tension with the United States, it could also push Turkey to intervene more aggressively in the north of the country to prevent any Kurdish consolidation.