Israel seeks to remain in southern Lebanon after truce expires

BeirutThe Israeli army missed the deadline to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon after the end of the sixty-day ceasefire, which ended on January 27. Now, uncertainty is growing over whether they will remain in the area beyond the new deadline set for this Tuesday, February 18. This possibility increases tension in a region that is already unstable, and puts at risk border security where the interests of different actors, both local and international, are difficult to align.

As the key date approaches, Concern and uncertainty grow over whether Israel will comply with a full withdrawal from southern Lebanon. The Netanyahu government has asked the United States for permission to keep troops at strategic points on the border, but Washington has not given the green light to the request. The US appears to believe that the Lebanese army is sufficiently deployed and that its full repositioning on the border must be done before the deadline. However, there are reports that Israel does not plan to withdraw from five to seven key posts in southern Lebanon after the 18th, arguing that its presence is necessary to protect the northern border.

Meanwhile, the UN peacekeeping mission in the region (UNIFIL) has reported the construction of what it calls "semi-permanent forward operating bases" on hills close to the Blue Line, the border defined by the United Nations. This fuels suspicions that Israel has no intention of leaving anytime soon, which could worsen the already tense relations between the two countries. Their justification for staying is that the Lebanese Armed Forces have failed to disarm Hezbollah or fully deploy in the area, which Tel-Aviv says poses a direct risk to its security.

In response, the Lebanese government maintains that it cannot complete the deployment of its forces until Israel fully withdraws. However, the Lebanese army has increased its presence south of the Litani River, a key area located between three and twenty-eight kilometers from the Blue Line. The UN has recognized this effort as a sign of commitment by Lebanon to take control of the region and limit Hezbollah's influence.

The Lebanese army has taken control of some facilities from Hezbollah

One of the most significant moves in this transition has been the Lebanese military's takeover of several facilities previously held by Hezbollah, including its tunnel network. In doing so, the Lebanese government seeks to strengthen its authority in an area that has been under the influence of the Shiite militia for years.

Despite the truce, Israel has continued to attack Hezbollah infrastructure and seize weapons along the border. It has also destroyed hundreds of homes, roads, places of worship, and electricity and water networks. For many people in Lebanon, these attacks are not just military operations, but part of a strategy to make the region uninhabitable and prevent its inhabitants from returning.

However, on January 27, thousands of Lebanese defied Israeli warnings and returned to their border villages. Beyond the desire to return, the mobilization also had a symbolic and organized tone, with participants carrying Hezbollah flags and portraits of fighters killed during the recent conflict. This shows that the return of the displaced is not only a humanitarian issue, but also a political one.

The human cost of this protest march was high. That same day, at least 22 Lebanese were killed and 124 wounded by Israeli fire. This episode increased indignation in the country and strengthened Hezbollah's narrative as a defender of the rights of the inhabitants of the south, which further complicates the possibility of a real de-escalation in the region.

Meanwhile, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has called on the European Union to push for Israel to fully withdraw by February 18. During a meeting with Portuguese Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel, Aoun reaffirmed Lebanon's support for the Arab Peace Initiative and rejected any attempt to forcefully displace Palestinians. The next few days will be crucial to determine whether Israel complies with its withdrawal or remains in southern Lebanon. Beyond the military presence, what is at stake is the ability to maintain a balance in an area that, following the withdrawal of Hezbollah due to the ceasefire, could once again be the scene of new tensions if Israel continues to postpone its withdrawal.