How much support does Zelensky really have among Ukrainians?

BarcelonaAfter having set in motion the diplomatic machinery to negotiate with Russia a ceasefire in Ukraine without the participation of the Ukrainians, Donald Trump openly sides with Vladimir Putin. Wednesday He called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a "dictator", echoing the political line of the Russian president, who has long rejected the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, or as he often puts it, the “Kiiv regime.” The Trump administration’s actions and words undermine Ukraine’s standing in the negotiations and give emboldenment to Moscow, which has been suggesting for months that elections in Ukraine should be held as part of any truce deal.

“Challenging Zelensky’s legitimacy is part of a Russian propaganda campaign to discredit the Ukrainian leadership, weaken its allies’ support for Ukraine, and remove Zelensky, and potentially the country, as part of negotiations over Ukraine’s future,” wrote Lena Surzhko, an expert on post-Soviet space at the University of Pennsylvania. "The Kremlin wants to push the narrative that the problem is that there is no legitimate Ukrainian authority to negotiate with. And what Putin needs to make this plan work is a partner willing to send the message that the current Ukrainian government is not a legitimate representative of its country. It seems that the new US administration wants to play that role," he added.

What do the polls say in Ukraine?

Zelensky's term ended last May, and elections have not been called because martial law was declared at the beginning of the war, which also prevents demonstrations and strikes. Under this premise, Trump has said that "elections have not been called for a long time" and has lied by saying that Zelensky's popularity is 4%. Ukrainian political scientist Oleski Haran, a researcher at the Foundation for the Democratic Initiative, one of the think tanks One of Kiev's most reputable figures, Haran refutes this data in statements to ARA from Kiev: "Polls say that more than 50% of Ukrainians trust Zelensky's management and that 35% do not approve of him. The 4% that Trump says I don't know where he gets it from, and it is obviously false, and it is obviously false."

Haran adds that electoral polls are not public in Ukraine because sociologists have reached this consensus in order not to weaken the war effort. "But the non-public studies that we have make it very clear that the one who has more support is General Zalukhni [the cap of the state major fins that Zelenski is going to appoint ambassador to London] and, according to lloc, there is Zelensky, who is the most valued political leader", he indicates. Amb tot, it is not clear that the military man is ready for his political career.

The initial support to Zelensky, who at the beginning of the large-scale Russian invasion It is going to shoot at 90% after you decide to stay in Kiev and resist, it has slowed down, but it continues to feel "huge for a qualsevol president, and it faces more than anyone who leads a country at war," said the politician "It is clear that there has been a lot of criticism about the war, because in parlem and because we live in a country that is light in times of war. martial law", diu. Haran also recalls that Ukrainian public opinion is willing to continue the war without the support of the State Units. "More than 50% believe that it is still going strong, but that the war continues to face more sagnant and difficult: that is what the questions are about. People believe that we are fighting for our country, for our freedom and for a just cause."

Alona Liasheva is a sociologist and editor of the Ukrainian magazine Commons, She answers the ARA's questions as a soldier on the front lines of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city, which is just 40 kilometres from Russia and has been resisting invasion for three years. She works as a paramedic and is in charge of assessing which soldiers are fit to fight in the trenches every morning. "Soldiers are very worried about the future since Trump was elected," she says, adding that support for Zelensky "fell after the failure of the counteroffensive in the summer of 2023, which he had promised would end the war in a year." "In any case," she adds, "soldiers trust officers more than politicians, and their message is that we will continue fighting even if we lose the support of the United States." The soldier-sociologist concludes that "morale is low, but there is also the idea that there is no alternative." "We have people in the trenches and we know that if we leave, the Russians will invade Kharkov. This is the level of politics at the front; it is very difficult to think about geopolitics here: either you kill or you are killed," he sums up.

Can elections be held in a country at war?

Liasheva is against holding elections in Ukraine now: "I think it would be a disaster. I understand that Zelensky is criticized and I agree with many of the criticisms, but elections would exclude, first of all, people who are in the army, of which there are a million Ukrainians." She also predicts that this would further increase "the gap between the army and civilians": "People are angry about how the mobilization is being carried out, they wonder why some pay more for the war effort than others, and elections would only make things worse."

Furthermore, Oleski Haran points out that there is no explicit demand among the opposition and Ukrainian civil society to hold elections right now. "There is a consensus that elections should be postponed, and even more so now, when we are in such a difficult situation. Perhaps it would be wise to form a national unity government now, but not to call elections," she says. Petro Poroshenko, Zelensky's main political rival, has rejected the idea of a wartime election, as has Inna Sovsun, leader of the opposition Golos Party.

In addition, there are the logistical problems of ensuring free and fair elections in the midst of a war, the logistical obstacles to campaigning and access to polling stations. There is also the question of whether and how to include Ukrainians in the Russian-occupied territories and internally displaced persons, as well as the 6.5 million refugees outside the country.

The political scientist recalls that the United Kingdom also did not hold elections during World War II. The situation would be different with a lasting and guaranteed ceasefire, but it is not clear that Putin (who won the last elections with 87% of the votes in a questioned process (for international observers who have been unable to verify it) is unwilling to give them. If elections are a prerequisite for a ceasefire in Trump’s mind, the US puts Ukraine’s government in an impossible position: accept the vote and risk internal division and external interference, or reject it and allow Moscow – and perhaps Washington – to frame Ukraine’s leaders as Ukraine as .