A conclave that can bring surprises
The speculation and betting are finally over. The 133 cardinal electors will be locked in the Sistine Chapel this Wednesday afternoon. to take the first vote. This is a conclave under double pressure: on the one hand, there doesn't seem to be a clear favorite, which means it takes several rounds to reach the necessary 89 votes; on the other, there's a certain rush, because no one wants a long period of confinement to exacerbate the sense of division within the Catholic Church.
There are other pressures, of course. But we don't know them yet. And perhaps we never will. A good example was the 2005 conclave, following the death of John Paul II. The big favorite was Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, "right-hand man" of the dead pope. However, Ratzinger represented continuity and faced strong opposition from the reformers, led by Jesuit Cardinal Carlo Maria Martini. And intrigues broke out.
As Martini suffered from Parkinson's disease, they began to talk about another Jesuit, the Argentine Jorge BergoglioIn the days leading up to the conclave, Argentine President Néstor Kirchner, Bergoglio's old enemy since he was appointed Archbishop of Buenos Aires, sought to block his path. Kirchner renewed accusations of Bergoglio's alleged collaboration with the military dictatorship.
The campaign was carried out thoroughly. Just before the start of the conclave, a lawyer linked to left-wing Peronism filed a lawsuit in Buenos Aires demanding clarification of Bergoglio's alleged responsibility in the kidnapping of two priests by the military. A former Argentine Secretary of Religious Affairs, Esteban Caselli, with excellent connections in the Vatican, sent all the cardinals several press articles that deepened suspicions about Bergoglio.
However, already at the conclave, Martini spoke of his illness and asked his supporters, some thirty of them after the first vote, to support Bergoglio. The Argentine became the only alternative to Ratzinger. The next day, during lunch, Bergoglio himself made it known that he didn't feel "ready." He was aware of the controversy surrounding his actions under the dictatorship. Ratzinger was elected that same afternoon and chose the name Benedict XVI.
The wonderful thing is that in 2013, after Benedict XVI's resignation, Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio didn't appear in any newspaper forecasts. While others were "campaigning," he was holed up in a Roman hotel. From within the Vatican, there was a strong insistence that the new pope be someone familiar with the internal intrigues—that is, someone from within, preferably an Italian. The Italian Episcopal Conference assumed that Angelo Scola, Archbishop of Milan, would be elected. When it came down to it, Scola obtained a couple of votes. After the fifth round, Bergoglio achieved the necessary majority.
Some cardinals later commented privately (despite the prohibition on discussing anything related to the conclave) that Bergoglio won not only because of his demonstrated popularity eight years earlier, but also because of the need, following the leaks and betrayals that had destabilized Ratzinger's papacy, for a strong-willed pope, capable of bringing some order to the Vatican. A third factor was his American origin: the Americas are home to almost half of the world's Catholicism.
They say that whoever enters the conclave as pope leaves as cardinal. This is sometimes true. Other times, it isn't. Today, the most talked-about cardinals are the Italian Pietro Parolin, head of Vatican diplomacy and dean of the College of Cardinals, a direct collaborator of Francis and the obvious choice, and the Filipino Luis Antonio Tagle, whose pastoral style is very similar to that of the deceased pope. In recent days, public accusations against Parolin as an alleged cover-up of sexual abuse committed by priests have worsened, suggesting he really has a chance.
Parolin? Tagle? Another one who, like Bergoglio in his time, knows how to hide? Can the ultraconservative opposition to Bergoglio's papacy spring a surprise? Nobody knows. It is possible to predict that the conclave participants will make an effort to elect a new pope before Sunday, a day of rest. Between now and Saturday, seven votes are possible, and that should be enough. Extending the conclave into next week would paint an image of division, which, in truly divisive times like the present, everyone prefers to avoid.