EU looks to India as an alternative partner to Trump and China

BrusselsThe European Union is increasingly alone. The United States, its main ally, is on the way to ending the Euro-Atlantic relations that have dominated the West since World War II, threaten a trade war and intend to stop being the protective umbrella in military matters for Europe. On the other hand, the community club has abruptly cut off relations with an expansionist Russia following the invasion of Ukraine and, in addition, sees the strong dependencies it has with China, which European leaders have already agreed to treat as a "systemic rival." To all this we must add the authoritarian and protectionist wave that is spreading everywhere - even within the European bloc - and that is cornering the democratic and liberal values of the community project that until a few years ago seemed to be supported by everyone.

In this context, Brussels is looking for alternative partners under the stones to diversify its commercial ties. It wants to stop having all its eggs in one basket, be it Moscow, Beijing or even Washington. Thus, at the end of last year the European bloc already closed the agreement with Mercosur - formed by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay - and with Trump's return to the White House, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called to look to new horizons and from the Davos Forum defends the need to forge a new alliance with India. "In this era of intense geostrategic competition, Europe continues to represent openness and partnership. And that is why we want to strengthen the ties we have with one of our most reliable allies," the EU leader said at a press conference on Friday.

In fact, after Kiev, the first major trip by Von der Leyen and her executive was to New Delhi, where they met with different representatives of the Indian executive and with the Prime Minister himself, Narendra Modi. According to EU sources, the objective was not to close any kind of agreement, but to lay the foundations for increasing the relationship so that a commercial understanding can be reached later. In this sense, the same sources advance that the intention is to hold a summit between the leaders of the EU and India during the second half of this year, and Brussels is expected to present an EU-India agenda next spring.

There are several interests on the table. For Brussels, the main focus is on the import of essential materials and products to boost European clean industry, such as electric batteries, chemical products, diamonds or digital services. In addition, the EU is pushing to reduce India's tariffs on European imports, in order to be able to export cars, alcoholic beverages and various agri-food products more cheaply. For its part, New Delhi wants Indian workers to have easier access to the EU labour market and to have some kind of advantage in its main exports to the European bloc, such as clothing, steel, petroleum products, electrical machinery and, among others, pharmaceutical products.

At this point, community sources point out that the sector in which negotiations are most advanced is that of the Clean technologies and digital servicesBoth sides are particularly interested in strengthening cooperation in this field and want to try to compete with the United States and China, which have an advantage over them. However, New Delhi is reluctant to enter into trade agreements on agricultural products and sees the environmental requirements imposed by Brussels on all products imported into the EU as an insult.

Along the same lines, the Indian government believes that opening up its agri-food market would go against its primary sector, which is not as technologically advanced as the European one and is made up mainly of small and medium-sized farms. In addition, it must be taken into account that India is a predominantly agricultural, livestock and fishing country, and these activities in 2023 accounted for 16% of its gross domestic product (GDP) and employ 44% of its active population, according to data from the World Bank. In contrast, Brussels assures that for the EU the primary sector represents 1.3% of its GDP and employs 5% of its workers.

That is why some EU member states, such as Germany, are pushing to leave aside trade relations that have to do with the agri-food sector in the negotiations and, in this way, unblock discussions on clean technology. In fact, Von der Leyen announced from New Delhi that she expects some kind of trade pact to be concluded with India this very 2025.

In this sense, the community president has claimed that they are "the two largest democracies in the world", and that they share "many values". In fact, the researcher of the think tank ECFR (European Council on Foreign Affairs) James Crabtree points out that the "size of the Indian market and its growth" is what has caused the EU to be seen as an "attractive partner". According to data from the European Commission itself, the EU and India account for nearly 25% of the world's population and GDP, and the total value of bilateral trade increases year by year and in 2024 it will reach 120 billion euros per year.

Modi's equidistance

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the European Union has been pushing for India to abandon its equidistance and choose sides. That is, to side with the Western allies and also impose sanctions on Vladimir Putin's regime. However, Modi has continued playing both sides and even has taken advantage of this to strengthen trade ties with Russia. India has thus become one of the main buyers of Russian oil and distributes it everywhere – including to countries in the EU club – and exports technological products to Russia that are feared to end up being used against Ukraine, such as drones.

Although these commercial relations make Brussels uncomfortable, Von der Leyen and Modi have ignored these issues – at least publicly – and have focused on highlighting the points and needs that unite them. In fact, researcher Crabtree points out that New Delhi currently maintains good relations with the White House, but also fears the "unpredictability" of Trump and Putin and "seeks to renew commercial relations with whoever it can." "It is hard to imagine a better historical moment to revitalize ties between Europe and India," says the expert.