Does Europe have a plan B against Trump?
US President Donald Trump is not prepared to negotiate anything with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. This was already clear from the Oval Office episode. "This man does not want peace as long as he has the support of the United States, and Europe, in its meeting with Zelensky [Sunday in London], stated flatly that they cannot do the job without the United States." This is his interpretation of European support in Ukraine. In other words: he despises Europe's strength and determination. They are not believed. He does not even seem to have valued the European offer to rapidly increase its military spending and he knows that Putin will not accept the deployment of European troops on Ukrainian territory once a truce or peace is agreed. In other words, Trump not only despises Zelensky, but also Europe.
A few days ago he said that the EU had been created "to screw" the US. And on Monday he said another: "We should worry less about Putin and more about immigrants so as not to end up like Europe." The enemy is not Putin, but immigrants. And Europe sees it as weak, indecisive, decadent. The American president feels more in tune with the authoritarian Russian president than with any democratic leader on the Old Continent. Are we on the threshold of a Copernican turn? And the defense of the free world? The answer, of course, is "America first".
His attitude, therefore, does not augur any kind of compromise to save the furniture of the transatlantic alliance or to save Ukraine from Russian voracity. The efforts of Macron and Starmer do not seem to be bearing fruit. Elon Musk, one of the most influential voices in Trump's case, has already directly opened the door to leaving NATO. The possibility of cutting US military aid to Ukraine is becoming increasingly plausible if Kiev does not indeed yield to his demands for an agreement on Ukrainian minerals without security guarantees.
Trump acts quickly. It is one of his political weapons. A fait accompli and a surprise effect. Are European leaders aware of this? Do they have a plan B in case the tenant of the White House actually loses patience and leaves the field free for Putin in Eastern Europe? The logic of compromise and classic diplomatic negotiation with which Macron, Starmer and company are acting is not that of the Republican billionaire, who boasts of being a businessman. If there is nothing to win, there is nothing to negotiate. Either you are with me or you will be. Putin is following suit, from strong and decisive man to strong and decisive man. There is nothing like the possibility of doing business with a good enemy, and the Russian has hinted that he is well prepared for it.
Trump sees the Europeans, on the other hand, as beggars and hesitant. Everything suggests that the threats to leave Ukraine and Europe alone are serious. The sooner this dynamic is understood in London, Paris, Berlin and Brussels, the better. Surely the one who has already assumed it is Zelensky. The question is whether he will be able to rely militarily on his European colleagues to confront Putin or whether he will have no other choice but to swallow his pride and dignity and give in to Trump's blackmail. We will soon find out.