Bosnia, another battlefield between Russia and the European Union

BarcelonaBosnia is immersed in its most serious political crisis in decades. The Assembly of the Republika Srpska, one of the two (Serb-majority) entities that make up Bosnia and Herzegovina, has adopted a new draft constitution that puts it on the path to independence. The draft law, approved early Thursday morning, authorizes the entity to establish autonomous institutions, such as the army and the judiciary, and establishes its right to self-determination, to decide on the application of national laws to its territory, and to form confederations with other countries. All of these proposals are contrary to the Dayton Peace Accords, signed in 1995. to end the war, and which serve as the basis for constitutional law in Bosnia.

The news comes at an already busy time. Last week, The Bosnian State Prosecutor's Office ordered the arrest of several Bosnian Serb officials., among whom was the entity's president, the pro-Russian Milorad Dodik, sentenced to one year in prison and six years of disqualification. Dodik, the instigator of the new draft constitution, has already made several attempts to challenge state institutions, but "he has never gone this far in implementing his agenda," International Institute for Peace researcher Adnan Cerimagic tells ARA. In response, Dodik began drafting laws banning entry into the region by the state judiciary and police.

The possibility of the Republika Srpska regaining an independent armed forces and police force is of greatest concern to the international community. The Republika Srpska army ceased to exist in 2003, when it was integrated into the State Army of the Federation. However, it was previously the military force that enforced the Siege of Sarajevo and perpetrated the Srebrenica genocide, led by its then commander-in-chief, Ratko Mladic, convicted of war crimes and genocide. A clash between the forces of this region and those of the Federation (the other Bosnian entity, with a Croat and Muslim majority) would reignite the still-simmering war of the 1990s.

Europe sends more troops to the Bosnian mission

It's no surprise, then, that Dodik's conviction alerted Brussels. The EU announced it would expand its remaining military peacekeeping mission in Bosnia, EUFOR, with 400 new troops added to the 1,100 already deployed in the country. This force—a mirage of what Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky would have hoped for when he speaks of "security guarantees"—ensures the implementation of the peace agreement signed after the Bosnian war. The move to deploy more troops "sends the message that we want to avoid an escalation of the conflict," says Bojana Zoric, a researcher at the EU Institute for Security Studies.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the support the European Union had expressed with a visit to Sarajevo on Monday, during which he assured that he "would not allow peace to be jeopardized" in Bosnia.

Republika Srpska's Russian allies see Bosnia's instability as another opportunity to demonstrate, once again, that Moscow is capable of destabilizing central Europe with minimal effort. Shortly after Dodik's conviction was made public, Russia criticized it as "politically motivated" and called an emergency session of the UN Security Council to discuss the matter. Dodik has already announced that he will visit Moscow on March 19 and has also called on Russia to veto the UN Security Council's expansion of the European mission, which is due to be voted on in November.

Waiting for a US political shift?

Both researchers agree that Dodik may have decided to act now, convinced that the international situation is in his favor. As a fervent defender of Donald Trump's policy, the Bosnian Serb president had invested money in the Republican's campaign, hoping that his presence in the White House and the European Union's endemic inability to make joint decisions would allow him to implement his agenda unhindered.

But "he has miscalculated," Zoric argues. For the moment, it seems Trump has no intention of changing the policy line on Bosnia championed by previous US administrations. In a statement that fell like a bucket of cold water in Banja Luka, the capital of the Republika Srpska, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that Milorad Dodik's actions "are weakening the institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and threatening its security and stability." For now, Cerimagic says, Washington is giving Sarajevo some breathing space, but the White House can always grant Dodik the necessary impunity to once again compromise the country's security.