Why doesn't immigration control work?

London"Many of the migrants crossing the English Channel are fleeing countries at war. If we don't address the root causes, the dangerous routes will continue." With these words, Christa Rottensteiner, head of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) mission in the United Kingdom, summarized last week what most specialists also maintain: deterrent migration policies, such as those currently being promoted by London and Paris, will be of little use if the root causes of unregulated migration are not addressed. This is the same conclusion reached by Matilde Rosina, a migration researcher at Brunel University London, who tells ARA: "Deterrent policies are often ineffective. Furthermore, they do not address the root causes of migration, such as poverty, conflict, and corruption."

The data make it clear. On the same day—Thursday, July 10—that Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron They announced a pilot program To limit the arrival of boats through the Canal, 573 people managed to cross. The following day, 353 more people crossed in five boats, and last Saturday, 317 people crossed in six. according to official data from the British Home Office. In total, between January 1 and July 12, 22,360 people arrived in the United Kingdom via this risky route, a 57% increase compared to the same period in 2024, when the number was 14,164.

This increase is accompanied by another tragic figure: in 2024, 73 people died during the crossing, five times more than in 2023. Since 2018, when the current wholesale migrant trafficking through the Manga Channel began, 6 to 4 have been confirmed. This includes other migration-related deaths in the area, such as accidents trying to board trucks bound for the United Kingdom. The Migration Observatory at Oxford University warns that this data may not reflect the true extent of the tragedy because not all incidents are made public.

Who are these people risking death at sea? Between 2018 and 2024, 70% of migrants crossing the Channel belong to six countries: Iran (17%), Afghanistan (15%), Iraq (12%), Albania (10%), Syria (9%), and Eritrea (8%). With the exception of Albania, all of these countries are experiencing war or humanitarian disasters. Sudan, the seventh country of origin for migrants, currently has four million displaced persons. Afghanistan was the main country of origin in 2023 and 2024. Iranians, Iraqis, Syrians, and Eritreans have also been constant since 2021. In 2024, arrivals of Vietnamese nationals tripled compared to the previous year.

Despite the complexity, the decision to cross the Channel is often explained "for very human reasons," says Matilde Rosina: "Many migrants have family or acquaintances in the United Kingdom," where their communities are larger than in France. These host networks are a key factor. Cultural, linguistic, and security perceptions also play a role. For many, "the United Kingdom is seen as a more welcoming country with greater opportunities, although these perceptions often don't match reality."

Furthermore, those affected have partial and fragmented knowledge of migration policies. They are often unaware of the real risks of the route and overestimate the chances of obtaining legal protection upon arrival. Traffickers take advantage. Therefore, studies indicate that legislative differences between countries have a limited impact compared to global factors such as the aforementioned war, poverty, and trafficking networks.

Brexit, the cause of British headaches

Another factor that could have favored the increase in arrivals is Brexit. Before the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union, the country could return asylum seekers to the first member state they had reached, according to the Dublin Protocol. But now it can no longer. Some migrants in Calais have explained that this change has pushed them to try to cross to the United Kingdom, especially if they have already been rejected in other European countries.

It must be said, however, that returns under the Dublin system did not exceed 560 per year on average between 2008 and 2020. In any case, last week French President Emmanuel Macron did not miss the opportunity to recall, precisely, the responsibility of Brexit and the deception that some politicians use to control the borders, "when the opposite has happened."

Macron also raised a storm when he suggested that the lack of labor controls in the United Kingdom allowed employers to abuse an illegal workforce in a quasi-exploitative regime. A statement that also doesn't fully explain the failure of immigration controls in the Canal.

In any case, in this context, the new pact between Starmer and Macron provides that the United Kingdom can return up to 50 migrants per week to France. In return, London will accept the same number of asylum seekers who have ties to the country (for example, family members) and who have not previously attempted to enter illegally. This is the first agreement of its kind signed by the United Kingdom with a European Union country since the divorce, but it must be validated by Brussels and will be especially analyzed by the Mediterranean countries most affected by the arrival of migrants, such as Spain, Italy, Greece, Malta, and Cyprus.

With an average of 843 weekly arrivals across the Channel during the year of Labour government -July 2024 - July 2025-, a minimum number of returns has been planned. For this reason, the Conservative opposition, and especially the far-right of Nigel Farage's Reform Party - which has made the arrival of foreigners, with or without papers, a central issue to shake Starmer and gain electoral ground–, has belittled the virtues of the program, accusing the premier ineffectiveness and insisting on his rhetoric about a nonexistent migrant "invasion." Building walls doesn't work.