Venezuela, mired between Maduro and Trump

Buenos AiresThree months have passed since the United States government began its siege of Venezuela with a military policy that, while not new in Latin America, is certainly novel in these times. It had been 36 years—since the 1989 invasion of Panama, led by George H.W. Bush—since the northern power had last intervened militarily in the region. Now, the country targeted is different, as are the leaders and motivations for intervention: Venezuela, governed by Nicolás Maduro, who refuses to negotiate or loosen his grip, and besieged by Donald Trump, determined to end drug trafficking, is currently mired in a conflict that cannot be resolved through either diplomatic or military means. Meanwhile, life goes on in the Caribbean nation, with nearly 900 political prisoners, rampant inflation, and an underlying tension and uncertainty that, day after day, exhausts Venezuelans.

“Nicolás Maduro will not negotiate,” Venezuelan political analyst María Ramírez (pseudonym) told ARA. “The nature of the regime and the background of its leaders—who are in a revolution like those of the 1960s—leads us to believe that, in his mind, the possibility of negotiation is unthinkable.” Maduro has rejected Trump’s offer, which demanded his immediate departure from the country with security guarantees for him and his family, because it did not include the total immunity and amnesty for a hundred high-ranking regime officials that he was requesting. This is what has been reported in the international press about the telephone conversation the two leaders allegedly had last November. “Maduro is prepared to die there, while at the same time Trump is trying to avoid having to intervene militarily,” says Ramírez, “since his electoral base is not in favor of that, and besides, he is desperate to receive the Nobel Peace Prize.” In short, a stalemate that is difficult to resolve.

According to this analyst, there are two other scenarios that could lead to the eventual capitulation of the Venezuelan regime: the first is that pressure from Secretary of State Marco Rubio—who is "absolutely clear" that intervention is necessary—ultimately convinces Trump. The second is that a high-ranking official in the Bolivarian National Armed Forces decides to hand Maduro over in exchange for the $50 million reward offered by the United States, "but this isn't so easy, because the officers are very entrenched, under surveillance, and threatened by Cuban intelligence." Ramírez emphasizes that Cuba's influence over Venezuela is extremely strong: "The Cubans are Maduro's main advisors, and they know that if he falls, they'll be next."

Meanwhile, the Pentagon continues to shoot down vessels in international waters extrajudicially—the latest this Friday in the Pacific—under the pretext that they are drug-trafficking boats heading to the United States, bringing the death toll to 87, "a flagrant violation of Human Rights," according to Ramírez, who nevertheless understands Trump's strategy: "Unfortunately, I think it's a valid strategy," she says, "given the cost we Venezuelans have suffered in recent years with Maduro remaining in power." The analyst speaks of a "destruction" of all the country's structures: universities and public education, public transportation, hospitals, infrastructure, salaries, and people's purchasing power; According to her, everything would have been profoundly diminished since, starting in 2006, Hugo Chávez began to gradually "erode" Venezuelan institutions, in his shift towards the so-called socialism of the 21st century, which included an increase in authoritarianism.

From Caracas, Daniela López (a pseudonym) explains to ARA that for weeks people have been living "in a state of constant alert," but at the same time, everyone carries on with their lives, "because Venezuelans who don't get up to work don't eat," she says. The country's informal economy currently hovers between 50 and 70 percent, according to various reports, none of them official: "What you earn in a day is what pays for your food," she explains, adding that if they are worried, "it's because, ultimately, nothing might happen." She acknowledges: "Many times it has seemed that Chavismo was going to fall, and now there are finally movements and it seems imminent, but we are worried about reaching this peak of tension, expectation, and hope, and then nothing happening." According to analyst Ramírez, "it is a possibility" that Maduro will end up resisting: "Trump is unpredictable, and he could withdraw, considering the fact that he eliminated several dozen drug traffickers at sea a victory."

For Daniela, the difference with other moments when the regime has seemed to falter—such as Chávez's death, episodes of intense protests, or Juan Guaidó's self-proclamation as president in 2019—is that this time "there have been elections, in which people voted massively and peacefully for change, and yet one person has decided to usurp a position that doesn't belong to him," she argues. "I would like the focus to be more on the 2024 elections, which we Venezuelans ourselves are organizing, and not so much on the 'narco-government,'" she says. Furthermore, she hopes that the Nobel Peace Prize "is not a consolation prize" for María Corina Machado, who dedicated the award to Donald Trump. From hiding, Machado is urging Venezuelans to organize and prepare, because "the day is near" and, she assures, "the transition will be orderly."