Venezuela, mired between Maduro and Trump

Buenos AiresThree months have passed since the United States government began its siege of Venezuela with a military policy that, while not new in Latin America, is innovative in these times, given that it had been 36 years—since the 1989 invasion of Panama, led by George Bush Sr.—since the northern power had intervened. Now the country being intervened in is different, and the leaders and motivations for intervention are also different: Venezuela. governed by a Nicolás Maduro who neither negotiates nor loosens the ropeAnd besieged by a Donald Trump determined to end drug trafficking, Venezuela finds itself mired in a conflict that cannot be resolved through either diplomatic or military means. Meanwhile, life goes on in the Caribbean nation, with nearly 900 political prisoners, rampant inflation, and an underlying tension and uncertainty that, day after day, exhausts Venezuelans.

"Nicolás Maduro is not going to negotiate," Venezuelan political analyst María Ramírez, speaking under a pseudonym, told ARA: "The nature of the regime and the training of its leaders—who are in a revolution like those of the 1960s—lead us to understand that, in their leader, there is no possibility of negotiation." Maduro has rejected Trump's offer, He demanded immediate departure from the country with security guarantees for himself and his family, because it did not include the full immunity and amnesty for a hundred high-ranking regime officials that he was requesting. This is what has emerged in the international press from the telephone conversation that the two leaders allegedly had in November. "Maduro is willing to die there, while Trump is trying to avoid having to intervene militarily," says Ramírez, "since his electoral base is not in favor, and also He is desperate to receive the Nobel Peace Prize"In short, a deadlock that's difficult to resolve."

According to this analyst, there are two other scenarios that could lead to the eventual capitulation of the Venezuelan regime: the first is that pressure from Secretary of State Marco Rubio—who is "absolutely clear" that intervention is necessary—will eventually convince Trump. The second is that a high-ranking official in the Bolivarian National Armed Forces might decide to hand Maduro over in exchange for the $50 million reward offered by the United States, "but that's not so easy, because the officers are very entrenched, under surveillance, and threatened by Cuban intelligence." Ramírez emphasizes that Cuba's influence over Venezuela is extremely strong: "The Cubans are Maduro's main advisors, and they know that if he falls, they'll be next."

Meanwhile, the Pentagon continues to shoot down vessels in international waters extrajudicially—the latest this Friday in the Pacific—under the pretext that they are drug-trafficking boats heading to the United States, bringing the death toll to 87, "a flagrant violation of human rights," according to Ramam. "Unfortunately, I think it's a valid strategy, given the cost Venezuelans have suffered in recent years with Maduro remaining in power." The analyst speaks of a "destruction" of all the country's structures: universities and public education, public transportation, hospitals, infrastructure, salaries, and people's purchasing power; everything has been profoundly diminished, she says, since Hugo Chávez began gradually "eroding" Venezuelan institutions in 2006, in his shift toward so-called 21st-century socialism, which included an increase in authoritarianism.

On permanent alert

From Caracas, Daniela López (a pseudonym) explains to ARA that for weeks people have been living "in a state of constant alert," but at the same time, everyone carries on with their lives, "because Venezuelans who don't get up to work don't eat," she says. The country's informal economy is currently between 50% and 70%, according to various reports, none of them official: "What you earn in a day is what pays for your food," she explains, adding that if they are worried, "it's because, ultimately, nothing might happen." "Many times it seemed that Chavismo had to fall, and now there are finally movements and it seems imminent, but we are worried that if we reach that peak of tension, expectation, and hope, and in the end nothing happens," she acknowledges. According to analyst Ramírez, "it's a possibility" that Maduro will end up resisting: "Trump is unpredictable, and he could withdraw, considering the elimination of several dozen drug traffickers at sea a victory."

For Daniela, the difference with other moments when the regime seemed to falter – such as the death of Chávez, episodes of strong protests, or the self-proclamation of Juan Guaidó as president in 2019 – is that on this occasion "There have been elections in which people voted massively and peacefully for change.And yet, someone has decided to usurp a position that doesn't belong to them. I would like the focus to be placed more on the 2024 elections, which we Venezuelans ourselves are building, and not so much on the narco-government"She says. She also hopes that the Nobel Peace Prize "is not a consolation prize" for María Corina Machado, who dedicated the award to Donald Trump. From hiding, Machado is urging Venezuelans to organize and prepare, because "the day is near" and, she assures, "the transition."