Uncertainty in Venezuela over a possible US military intervention

Buenos AiresIn a week in which the US Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, has formally announced the start of a military operation in Latin America to "expel the narco-terrorists" of the Western Hemisphere, in which the twentieth attack on alleged drug boats in the Caribbean has been confirmed – with a death toll of 80 unidentified since September 2 – and in which Donald Trump has deployed the Gerald Ford aircraft carrier – the largest and most equipped in the world – to Latin America imminently.

From Caracas, anonymous sources have told ARA that, although "people don't want the United States to intervene in Venezuela but rather want the results of the 2024 elections to be respected," it is also true that "most people are waiting for something to happen." This "something" that hasn't materialized yet, but which "must happen," seems to be causing uncertainty and a "tense calm" in the streets of the capital, as well as along Venezuela's borders and in the rest of the region.

What would a US military intervention in a Latin American country in 2025 entail? Should other states also prepare for a possible such action on their own territory? And another question that remains unanswered is: what is happening right now inside Miraflores Palace and within the Venezuelan government?

"The ultimate goal of the United States is to end up expelling Nicolás Maduro from government," Alejandro Corbacho, a Security and Defense expert at CEMA University in Argentina, tells ARA: "Redoubling diplomatic pressure, as they have done now, is not to go against Venezuela, but against the Maduro government," he argues.

Corbacho believes that, rather than a military landing and invasion, there is a possibility of a "type intervention" RAID"That is, the US military should enter Venezuela, capture the top government officials, and leave. Meanwhile, The Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB) have been preparing for an invasion for weeks.And the Venezuelan government has activated civilian militias, with questionable preparedness to face an army like the U.S. one. "We'll also have to see what image the United States wants to project: that of an invading country, or that of a liberating country," says Corbacho.

For his part, "Maduro wants anything but a confrontation," Modesto Emilio Guerrero, an analyst, founder of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, and Hugo Chávez's biographer, told ARA. "He's a negotiator; he always opens diplomatic channels to avoid confrontation." Even though the other negotiating party is the Donald Trump administration, which has been adamant about the "illegitimate" nature of the Venezuelan government, Guerrero believes that Maduro "will resort to any international power between Caracas and Washington, from Lula to Putin, to prevent a confrontation." This analyst believes that Maduro's "non-combative" stance is "good news" in this context, since "the cost of intervention will be very high, and it won't be paid by him or his family, but by half of Venezuelan society."

A relative support

In neighboring countries there are diverse approaches to the possible intervention in Venezuela: Lula da Silva maintains a diplomatic distance: he rejects a military solution and offers himself as a mediator, and Gustavo Petro has made it clear that Colombia – a country that has received almost 3 million Venezuelan immigrants in the last eight years – will not participate militarily in the event of an invasion. Although deeply critical of Maduro's leadership, Petro invoked the principle of national sovereignty and escalated tensions with the United States: he suspended the exchange of information with intelligence services, claiming that attacks on boats in international waters are "murders" and that "the fight against drugs" is being used against them.

For analyst Alejandro Corbacho, the defense of "sovereignty" by Latin American progressives is almost hypocritical: "They talk a big game about it and then act just like subjects, because ultimately we are recent ex-colonies, we have high levels of corruption, and abundant raw materials." What the countries of the region must do, in his view, is "choose whether they want to be part of a world of values." Westernerswith the United States and Europe" or, on the contrary, be part of a world "where there are no elections and where they don't know what democracy is, like Iran, Russia, North Korea, and China." Venezuela, which would lead many Venezuelans, even anti-Chavistas, to fight against a US invasion and reject the opposition leader—and recent Nobel Peace Prize laureate—María Corina Machado as the next president of Venezuela: "She has called on Trump to invade the country, which has been squandered."