Ukraine is already preparing for its worst nightmare: the Russian war machine is leveling up.

Just a year ago, it was considered exceptional for thirty drones to attack Ukraine in a single night. Now, Russia is overwhelming the Ukrainian military's air defenses with the launch of hundreds of drones every day. On Sunday, the Kremlin struck Ukrainian territory with a "massive attack" against several Ukrainian cities.: 298 drones in total, probably a record. Russia is also using more missiles: 69 were fired in a single night. As a result, Ukraine is once again entering uncharted territory.

If the current ceasefire talks fail, which seems highly likely, air defense units will have to ration their missile interception systems. More Russian missiles and drones will successfully evade defenses and attack critical towns, cities, and industries. Vladimir Putin's military is increasingly finding ways to breach Ukraine's air defenses, which are facing increasing difficulties due to a shortage of interceptor missiles, changing enemy tactics, and an unfriendly US policy. And there are no major production or stockpile problems in Russia.

The Kremlin's air war escalated earlier this year, with a marked shift in the equipment it uses. Ballistic missiles, many of them supplied by North Korea, are now the flagship weapon; along with a new, more lethal generation of Sahed attack drones. Ballistic missiles are difficult to stop because of their speed, and only Ukraine's dwindling stock of PAC-3 Patriot missiles offers any realistic chance of intercepting them. Meanwhile, the Saheds, now on their sixth modification since the first one was shipped to Russia by Iran in 2023, use machine learning to strike well-defended targets like the city of Kiev.

But more than the technical evolution of the aircraft, the main challenge facing Ukrainian air defense personnel is the large number of devices that they now want. Last year, the Kremlin produced about 300 Sahed drones per month; the same number is now deployed in less than three days. Ukrainian military intelligence says it has documents suggesting Russia plans to increase its production to 500 drones per day, suggesting that swarm attacks of 1,000 could become a reality. This is probably an exaggeration, warns Kostiantyn Kryvolap, a Ukrainian aviation expert. The Russian arms industry runs on boasts and false reports, he says. "But it's clear that the numbers will increase significantly."

The autopsy of drones, key

In a hidden corner of Kyiv, a ragtag team of engineers is dismantling the insides of a Sahed drone. Every piece of metal that falls on Ukrainian cities ends up in labs like this one for a full autopsy. The goal is to document the tricks of Russian weapons; to redesign anything that works and send a version back to where it came from. Over the past month, work has only increased. As they continue to dissect Sahed's latest installment, the engineers say one of their biggest concerns is how Russian drones are now controlled. The newest models are unaffected by Ukraine's electronic warfare, they explain. That's because they no longer rely on jammable GPS, but are instead powered by artificial intelligence and take advantage of Ukraine's own internet and mobile networks.

The team says they recently discovered a note inside one of the drones they were dismantling, presumably left by a Russian engineer, that hinted at the new control algorithm. According to the note, the drones are controlled by boats on the Telegram platform., from where flight data and live video are sent to human operators in real time. Not long ago, most drone hunting was done by mobile crews with cheap shoulder-mounted machine guns firing short-range missiles. Now, according to Colonel Denys Smazhny, an air defense force officer, drones easily outsmart these groups. At first, they fly low to avoid detection, then climb sharply to 2,000–2,500 meters as they approach cities, exceeding the threshold for small-caliber weapons.

That's why Ukraine is turning to helicopters, F-16 fighter jets and interceptor drones, which have begun to show good results.A senior official says the air defenses around Kiev are still destroying 95% of the drones Russia throws at it. Many countries have systems that can counter these fast and destructive weapons. In the Western world, the US Patriot system has an effective monopoly on the ballistic air defense business, presumably using European money. The White House's response has been noncommittal. But this is about 100 fewer than anticipated for Russian ballistic missile production, and a Ukrainian government source estimates the Kremlin has a stockpile of 500 missiles. Ukraine would struggle to keep pace with the persistent Russian threat. It may have to develop a survivability strategy that combines air defense with air offense and deterrence.