The left loses Bolivia after twenty years

PeaceFarewell to two decades of rule by the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS). This is what the Bolivian people chose this Sunday in the presidential elections when they prevailed—in the first round—over centrist candidate Rodrigo Paz. In an unexpected result, the senator obtained more votes than the main right-wing candidates, although not enough to ensure an outright victory. Paz thus garnered nearly 33% of the vote, while former right-wing president "Tuto" Quiroga also advances to the second round with 26%.

Left behind are candidates like Samuel Doria, who polls showed to be in first place, but finished in third with 20% of the vote. The left's strongest candidate, Andrónico Rodríguez, failed to secure more than 8% of the vote. Therefore, despite representing a split from the MAS, he effectively ends any aspirations of any member of this historic party entering the People's House.

La Paz's Avenida Arce was teeming with activity, as Paz hadn't even organized a meeting point for activists or the press. Thus, anyone waiting for his speech on the street described him as a renewing figure, far removed from the leftist stereotypes of recent years and also distant from the traditional right. Paz, despite being aware of Bolivia's economic reality, has sought to soften the pressure from the right to implement severe austerity measures. These measures have been demanded of the current president, Luis Arce, in the face of his inaction.

Economic Factor

In the city of El Alto, which merges with La Paz, the same population that believed in Evo Morales had until now been pointing to Luis Arce. And the city, which represented a bastion of the MAS (Mass Movement), yesterday became Paz's followers: the centrist candidate obtained more than 40% of the votes in this area. The main reason, its population explains, is the difficult economic situation the country is experiencing. Beti is an example. He describes his personal situation while carrying an entire box of tomatoes. "I have to buy for five families; the more you buy, the better," he says. Bread, tomatoes, flour, milk, clothing, shampoo: "Everything has gone up in Bolivia." Year-on-year inflation in July stood at 25%, a situation that forces many families to sacrifice basic staples.

In Ciudad Satélite, in a neighborhood of El Alto, a long line of cars and trucks waits. In the background, a gas station. There's fuel here, but suddenly "they ran out of diesel," says a service station worker. John, who was speaking to ARA at the time of the announcement, laughs to keep from crying. He works as an independent truck driver, and his family depends on the transport he provides. But without gasoline, there's no transportation possible, and his daily work consists of searching for fuel for the truck. "Sometimes we sleep two or three nights waiting in line to fill up the tank," he comments.

Since last year, Bolivia has suffered an acute shortage of a commodity that acts as a common denominator. And with the lack of dollars to import fuel, the problem persists. John has now gone three days without finding a way to fill up his tank: "I haven't been able to work for three days," he summarizes. "There's no politician who can fix it," he asserts, at the foot of a slogan trying to win his vote: "Gasoline and diesel for 5 bolivianos, no lines." After finishing the conversation, he walks off to find another service station.

Two possible presidents

In his speech to his supporters, he already said: "Not even the polls listened to us." Because no poll predicted that Paz would reach the second round in first place and with the support, announced just yesterday, of Samuel Doria himself. His victory highlights the weariness that Bolivians express toward an establishment that has lasted decades. The candidate has sought to distance himself from Quiroga and Doria Medina's promises to sell Bolivia's abundant lithium reserves to foreign companies and turn to the International Monetary Fund for billions of dollars in loans. He has also launched attacks against the MAS party and its state-led economic policies: "I will return the economy to the people and take it out of the state," he said to the shouts of supporters. A direct message to the MAS's statist policies.

'Tuto' Quiroga, the other presidential candidate, is an old acquaintance who served as president on an interim basis between 2001 and 2002. He is a conservative and "liberal" (as he defines himself) advocate, and his program is drastic and reminiscent of Milei's chainsaw program, the current president of hydrocarbons, mining, and lithium; fiscal austerity and digitization of the state—where internet access has not yet reached certain towns—and less emphasis on public social spending.