Trump's agreement with Saudi Arabia worries Israel

JerusalemThe United States and Saudi Arabia on Wednesday closed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement that would open the door to the development of a Saudi nuclear program without some of the safeguards traditionally required by Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump has assured that "there will be no enrichment of nuclear material" and that the program will be exclusively for civilian uses. He also specified that the pact will only go ahead if Saudi Arabia adheres to the Abraham Accords, promoted by the United States in 2020, and if it normalizes relations with Israel. Riyadh has not yet reacted publicly.

a civil nuclear cooperation agreement that would open the door to the development of a Saudi nuclear program without some of the safeguards traditionally required by Washington. U.S. President Donald Trump has assured that "there will be no enrichment of nuclear material" and that the program will be exclusively for civilian uses. He also specified that the pact will only go ahead if Saudi Arabia adheres to the Abraham Accords, promoted by the United States in 2020, and if it normalizes relations with Israel. Riyadh has not yet reacted publicly.

The office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has always been opposed to giving nuclear capabilities to countries in the region, has welcomed that Trump has made Saudi Arabia's recognition of the state of Israel a condition. In a statement, it stated that a potential Saudi adherence to the Abraham Accords would represent "a historic leap towards peace in the Middle East," and recalled that joint military operations by the United States and Israel against Iran have created a new opportunity to expand the circle of peace in the region. 

The news, however, has provoked a strong reaction within Israel. The most forceful voice has been that of former Defense and Foreign Affairs Minister Avigdor Liberman, leader of the Yisrael Beytenu party and a candidate who wants to contest Benjamin Netanyahu's leadership in the next elections. Liberman has called the agreement "completely unacceptable" and has warned that "every military nuclear program begins as a civilian program," referring to the Iranian precedent. "An agreement that allows uranium enrichment on Saudi territory is a red line," Liberman stated on Israeli public television Kan. The former minister believes that the pact could trigger "a crazy nuclear race in the Middle East" and has called on pro-Israeli pressure groups in the United States to lobby Congress to block the agreement.

Civil nuclear cooperation and security guarantees were already part of a broader agreement by the Biden administration that sought the normalization of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, but the Gaza war and the Saudi demand for a horizon towards a Palestinian state have moved this possibility further away.

“The main fear is not so much Saudi Arabia as it exists today, but the precedent that the agreement could create. If Riyadh is allowed to enrich uranium, other countries could claim similar rights,” Neil Quilliam, a researcher for the Middle East program at the Chatham House research center and a specialist in energy policy and relations between Israel and Arab countries, explains to ARA. According to him, Israel is particularly concerned about the possibility of a wider regional nuclear competition and a progressive weakening of the non-proliferation standards that have been in place for years.

Reduce dependence on oil

Behind the Saudi program is a broader economic and geopolitical bet. Riyadh argues that having atomic energy is a tool to reduce its dependence on oil and advance its economic transformation project.

“Saudi Arabia seeks to diversify its energy mix, reduce domestic oil consumption, and support the Vision 2030 economic project. But at the same time, the agreement strengthens its relationship with Washington and gives it access to advanced technology that improves its economic and geopolitical position,” adds Quilliam. The pact “includes these three things: civilian nuclear energy, security guarantees, and regional influence”.

The agreement also cannot be understood without Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has stated on several occasions that if Tehran develops a nuclear weapon, Riyadh will follow suit.

While it is still too early to determine the consequences, even without developing nuclear weapons, the program could alter the regional balance. “Nuclear capability and nuclear weapons are not the same thing. Even a strictly civilian program can increase a country's technological knowledge, industrial capacity, and political influence,” concludes Quilliam. Therefore, the central question for Israel is not just whether Saudi Arabia will develop a nuclear weapon, but what impact its acquisition of advanced nuclear capability will have in a region marked by rivalry between powers.