Trump is betting on gunboat diplomacy without diplomats.

Berlin / WashingtonOver the past year, the Trump administration has practiced unconventional diplomacy, gunboat diplomacy, and, in the most delicate crises, diplomacy without diplomats. On Tuesday, the Trump administration attempted to employ all three tactics simultaneously. In Geneva, the president's most trusted envoys—his real estate friend Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner— They spoke with the Iranians in the morning. and in the afternoon, with the Russians and the Ukrainians

It was a striking example of Trump's conviction that the State Department and the National Security Council, both institutions that have coordinated negotiations on global crises for nearly 80 years, are best left in the background. According to all sources consulted, the president is confident in his approach, reinforced by last year's negotiations to secure a ceasefire in Gaza and the return of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas. And countries like Russia, Turkey, and the Gulf Arab states have welcomed the arrival of both men, with their transactional approach born of real estate negotiations in New York, especially given the greater flexibility that Witkoff and Kushner offer. They speak the language of dealmakers and don't spend much time lecturing on human rights or democratic building. And it's no surprise that their diplomatic counterparts are closely linked to the business deals negotiated by the Trump and Witkoff families. More recently, according to one source, the Russians were pleased with Kushner's involvement because of his more structured approach. Some Russians have begun to call the Witkoff-Zyatkoff tandem... zyat is the Russian word for son-in-lawThe Iranians have also nicknamed him Damad Trump, using the Persian word that describes his influence through his marriage to the president's daughter, Ivanka. Iranian media have dedicated coverage and columns to him. And political analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi wrote in the newspaper Asr Iran that his participation in the talks was a positive thing. In an interview last October, Kushner stated that his and Witkoff's diplomatic approach was based on being "men of compromise" who "need to understand people."

The pragmatic side

Witkoff was known in real estate circles for major deals, including the purchase of the Woolworth Building, which had been New York's tallest skyscraper, in 1998. Kushner followed in the footsteps of his father, real estate developer Charles Kushner. While the former is a U.S. special envoy, Kushner holds no official government position and receives no public salary.

During Trump's first term, Kushner spearheaded the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries —though their hope of bringing Saudi Arabia on board has yet to materialize—. Last year, their efforts to broker a ceasefire in Gaza drew praise even from some Democrats for bringing an end to a war that President Biden had been unable to conclude. Supporters of the administration see Witkoff and Kushner as ideal negotiators, in part because, they say, their personal wealth makes them more resistant to corruption.

However, both face questions about potential conflicts of interest. Witkoff's son, Zach, is the CEO of World Liberty Financial, the Trump family's cryptocurrency company. Last year, an investment firm linked to the United Arab Emirates acquired nearly half of it for $500 million. Kushner raised several billion dollars before Trump's second term from foreign investors, including sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE—countries he had worked with while serving as a senior advisor in the White House during the first term.

But neither Witkoff nor Kushner is getting ahead. The Russians and Iranians share a strategy: postpone any decision. In the Munich Security Conference last weekend, Several participants on the sidelines of the Ukraine negotiations — which will take place next Tuesday It will be four years since Russia invaded—they reiterated that the Kremlin had every incentive to participate in the talks and few compelling reasons to sign an agreement.

According to military and intelligence officials from several Western countries, Vladimir Putin believes he is winning. And he is convinced that, even if it takes him between 18 months and two years to consolidate control over Donbas, every day of fighting and every night of Russian missiles and drones falling on energy infrastructure and residential buildings gives him more negotiating power.

For the Iranians, the postponement is the regime's last-ditch survival strategy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was in Slovakia and Hungary earlier this week But not participating in the Geneva negotiations, he defended a pessimistic view. "It will be difficult," he told reporters. "It has been very difficult for everyone to reach real agreements with Iran, because we are dealing with radical Shiite clerics who make theological, not geopolitical, decisions." However, in recent hours, Tehran has announced an agreement in principleBut here the similarities end. In the case of Iran, Trump is reinforcing his diplomacy with the threat of relatively imminent military action if there is no progress—perhaps in days, perhaps in weeks. In the case of Russia and Ukraine, he has reduced military pressure by halting the direct arms shipments to Ukraine that had occurred—with strong congressional support—during the Biden years. The president has also acted against Russia's shadow fleet that sells oil, exacerbating Putin's mounting economic problems, while his own administration floats ideas about US investments in Russia if a deal can be announced—almost any deal. Given this dynamic, some analysts predict that Putin could reach an agreement to halt the fighting in Ukraine, especially if he achieves a deeper rapprochement with the United States and the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas. But the ceasefire It's still a long way off.

© The New York Times