Trump dampens expectations for meeting with Putin in Alaska

WashingtonFrom announcing the face-to-face meeting with Vladimir Putin as "the end of the road" for the war in Ukraine to downplaying it as a "listening exercise." The White House and Donald Trump himself have been lowering expectations for this Friday's meeting with the Russian president in Alaska. The tycoon, who boasted upon returning to the White House that he would end the conflict in a matter of days, has been stuck in the Russian mud for more than six months. Trump is in a hurry to secure a ceasefire; Putin is in no hurry. Both are aware of the situation, and for the moment, the Russian is the one who has managed to move the pieces in his favor. But the fact that Washington is lowering the bar for the meeting doesn't make it any more predictable. On the contrary.

When Trump appeared alongside Putin at the Finnish presidential palace in 2018, the Republican showed that he can always go one step further when it comes to surprising the world. Amid investigations into possible Russian interference in the 2016 elections, Trump stated: "President Putin says it wasn't Russia. And I don't see any reason why it should be." The tycoon bought the Kremlin's narrative, shocking advisors and members of the Republican Party. Putin had made the most of the closed-door meeting with his counterpart, where only a Russian interpreter had entered.

Seven years after the unusual scene, Alaska could be a new Helsinki. The Kremlin has already confirmed that, in addition to a meeting between the two delegations, there will also be a one-on-one meeting between the two leaders with only interpreters present. Putin will most likely try again to use the opportunity to align Washington's interests with Moscow's. Despite Trump's boast of being a businessman who closes deals, the Russian is a former KGB agent who managed to climb the Soviet Union just before it collapsed.

The president's inner circle is now also much more advantageous to Putin than it was during his previous term. The main messenger between the White House and the Kremlin is Steve Witkoff, an old friend of the tycoon with zero diplomatic experienceTrump wants soldiers who will accomplish missions, not question them. The only anti-Russia hawk in the cabinet is Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has already had to tone down his ferocity to keep his job. Rubio has resigned himself to the fact that the two most important US diplomatic posts (Ukraine and Gaza) are in Witkoff's hands.

Ultimatum deactivated

Putin was able to defuse Trump's ultimatum last week when Witkoff visited him for a third time in Moscow. The Russian agreed to meet in person with the Republican in Alaska, and within days, the White House rhetoric about "grave consequences" has fluctuated from achieving an end to the war with this meeting to a second meeting likely being necessary.

On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt again lowered expectations: "I think the president, by meeting in person with the president of Russia, sitting face to face instead of on the phone, will gain the best understanding of how to end this war and where to go." Leavitt also pointed to the need for a third "trilateral" meeting, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, to broker peace.

The idea of a new three-way meeting, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, has been gaining traction in the US narrative as the Alaska meeting drew closer. After excluding Kiev from all previous negotiations and forcing him to accept a partial truce agreed only with Moscow, it now appears that his presence is necessary to close the deal. Washington seems to be making excuses for the eventual outcome of the meeting, and it's doing so by putting the spotlight on Zelensky. Although Trump told reporters on Wednesday that "there will be serious consequences" if a ceasefire agreement isn't reached by Friday, he also pointed to a "second trilateral meeting" as the truly important one.

At the same time, he made a poisoned promise to Zelensky and the European leaders during the videoconference prior to Alaska: There will be no territorial concessions without Ukraine. In other words, territorial concessions will be made with Kiev sitting at the table, despite the fact that the Ukrainians have marked the surrender of territory as a red line. Upon leaving the meeting, French President Emmanuel Macron also said that Trump had been "very clear" about his objective of achieving a ceasefire.

One thing is not incompatible with the other, and it cannot be ruled out that for the tycoon, the way to end hostilities is through territorial concessions. On Monday, he already hinted at this when he said that "there will be some territorial exchanges." The president acknowledged that Russia had made great progress, but that they would try to "recover some of it." In other words, Ukraine would hardly regain its pre-invasion borders.

Trump has turned military and economic aid into a leash with which to force Zelensky to go wherever he wants. The president said Wednesday that today's meeting probably wouldn't be as important as the next one. The question is, for whom would it not be as important, because for Putin the Alaska meeting is likely to be crucial. The worst thing that could happen to the Russian is that he buys more time to continue consolidating employment, and the best thing is that he wins Trump over again like he did in Helsinki.