"The world is heading towards a major clash of models"

BarcelonaThe new US administration, with a more unpredictable Trump, the escalation of war in Europe, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza stemming from Israel's genocidal war, highlight an international system entering a dark phase, marked by the erosion of the consensus that had sustained the global order in recent decades, since World War II. In this context, the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB) presented the 35th edition of its International Yearbook this Thursday, which identifies three major global challenges: the new international economic order, the geopolitics of climate change, and the future of warfare.

"We must understand the world to transform it responsibly, but one of the problems is that the great power, the United States, is not seeking solutions, but rather denying the problem," said Josep Borrell, former High Representative of the European Union and now president of CIDOB. In this section of the Yearbook, CIDOB analyzes how the United States has eroded the system of international agreements and alliances, thereby weakening its own economic security and opening the door to a world order less dependent on Washington. Regarding the future of Europe's relationship with the US administration, the advisor for European Union and Foreign Action, Jaume Duch, was emphatic: "We can no longer speak of an accident of history, but of a deep and enduring trend. With or without Trump, we are capable of reinventing the European Union and adapting it to a world for which it was not created." In this respect, the Yearbook also analyzes the future of the dollar as the main international reserve asset, the concept of geoeconomics, and the growing competition between blocs for control of critical minerals and rare earth elements, fundamental for the green transition.

CIDOB also points out how the rules of the game regarding climate change have changed: it is no longer just about the struggle for strategic resources, transport routes, or technologies, but also about managing a growing number of climate refugees who are profoundly altering all regions of the planet.

Aromar Revi, founding director of the Indian Institute for Human Settlements and co-chair of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, has summarized the climate challenge as a "systemic problem we suffer because of our choices and the development model we have adopted." The expert emphasized the need for massive and simultaneous transformations: accelerated electrification, expansion of renewable energy and storage systems, reform of electricity markets, adaptation of agricultural systems to new rainfall patterns, and transformation of cities to be more sustainable and resilient to climate extremes. "A true cultural revolution accompanied by a shift in mindset at the national level is necessary to survive this context," Revi said. "We must change how citizens understand consumption, mobility, recycling, and their role on the planet." According to the expert, reorganizing the financial, economic, and social model is the best response to climate change, and the massive adaptation during the pandemic is a clear precedent. The Yearbook also examines the degrowth debate, the need to green European industrial policy, and the growing climate agenda of the BRICS+, as well as the central role of China: a leader in green technology but also the main emitter of CO₂. Europe at a turning point

In a scenario where not only climate change poses a challenge, but also the emergence of future armed conflicts marked by artificial intelligence and disinformation, the European Union becomes a key player, especially in defending the environment and protecting global public goods. "Europe must unite and build a new model based on collective solidarity, and it has already begun to do so," Revi stated. Along the same lines, the Catalan Minister for European Union and Foreign Action, Jaume Duch, concluded the presentation of the Yearbook by emphasizing Europe's role in this context. "Europe can choose between managing its vulnerability or transforming its political project into a universal proposal for freedom, dignity, and shared prosperity," he added, reminding everyone that "we are at a moment where we must move from wishful thinking to decisive action; we need fewer declarations and more capacity for action, more unity, more courage, and more vision."