The war threatens the economic model of the Gulf countries, and not only because of oil.

BarcelonaYou don't need to be an economist to realize the astronomical losses that the current war with Iran could represent for the Gulf petro-monarchies, especially if it continues for an extended period. Aside from the costs associated with the destruction of some of their infrastructure, the disruption of maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz It is a serious headache for states that derive between 60% and 85% of their revenue from oil and gas sales. However, the long-term cost of this war could be quite high for another reason: it threatens their plans to diversify their economies and end their dependence on oil.

A recurring theme in international media coverage of the war has been the plight of foreigners stranded in the Gulf countries due to the closure of airspace over almost the entire region. This has affected both foreign residents in one of the petro-monarchies and those who had purchased tickets to travel to other destinations in Asia. Witnesses often expressed their shock at their precarious situation, as they had chosen to live in this region not only for the high salaries but also for its safety.

While the percentage of foreign workers varies within the region, it is very high in almost all the countries under attack. For example, in Saudi Arabia, foreign labor represents 77% of the total workforce, and in Dubai, it rises above 90%. In other words, the prosperity achieved by these societies rests not only on their natural resources but also on their ability to attract workers from abroad, whether low-skilled, often from the Indian subcontinent or the Far East, or highly educated, more commonly from the West or other Arab countries.

The "Dubai model"

The clearest example is the emirate of Dubai. The United Arab Emirates is the world's seventh-largest oil producer, and more than 90% of its production is concentrated in a single emirate, Abu Dhabi. In Dubai's case, oil constitutes only 1% of its revenue. If this city-state has been able to become one of the most prosperous in the world, it is thanks to its transformation into a tourist center and, above all, into ahubDubai is a logistical and commercial hub for the entire Middle East region. It is home to a large number of multinational corporations operating in the region.

Its model is so successful that other countries want to emulate it to reduce their dependence on oil in anticipation of a successful global transition to renewable energy, given that their oil reserves will one day run dry. For example, it is no secret that the "Vision 2030" initiative promoted by Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was inspired by Dubai. Iran's attacks on the civilian infrastructure of the Gulf petro-monarchies, in addition to seeking to pressure the US to end its offensive, also aim to destroy the "Dubai model."

This has also been expressed by several experts who have appeared on the Iranian state television network, IRIB, in recent days. In their arguments, they recalled that the perception of security is essential to the "Dubai model," and that while oil production can recover fairly quickly once the conflict is over, the same cannot be said for the condition ofhubregional. "Kuwait was also a kind of Dubai before the 1991 Gulf War, and since then, it has never been that way again," the Iranians recall. Perhaps this strategy, apart from its normalization of relations with Israel, explains why the Emirates have been particularly hard hit among Iran's neighbors: missile and drone attacks have been five or six times greater than those suffered by the other petro-monarchies.

Air connection between Europe and Asia

The airline sector is a prime example of the long-term damage the current war in the Gulf states can cause. For years, airlines like Qatar Airways and Emirates have captured the lion's share of the intercontinental travel market between Europe and Asia thanks to their strategic locations. But their customers' experiences in recent days show they are completely overwhelmed. In many cases, they are not providing hotels or any compensation for those affected by flight cancellations. Therefore, the current situation presents a significant opportunity for competitors like Turkish Airlines to offer alternative routes and seize market share.

Thanks to their ability to intercept Iranian missiles, what has most unsettled the petro-monarchies so far is the feeling of fear. But if the war drags on, another concern could be something more tangible: problems with food supplies. "With more than 70% of food being imported through the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf states could face shortages if the war drags on," Neil Quilliam, a researcher at the Gulf Cooperation Council, told Reuters. think tank Chatham House. If this scenario comes to pass, the blow to the "Dubai model" would be very hard.