The purge of the military leadership triggers rumors of instability in China

BeijingThe announcement that General Zhang, along with General Liu Zhenli, has been removed from their posts and is being investigated for "serious violations of discipline and the law"—a euphemism that translates into accusations of corruption—has unleashed all sorts of rumors in China.

The regime's information blackout fuels all kinds of theories, from whether Xi Jinping is facing internal opposition or, conversely, whether he is consolidating his power, to speculation about whether this decision will delay or accelerate the invasion of Taiwan. Even on Western social media, there has been speculation about a possible coup attempt with troops deployed in the capital, but in Beijing, the situation is normal.

Zhang Youxia's downfall was unexpected. He was the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the body that directs the armed forces and is chaired by Xi Jinping. Zhang, 75, was the top military officer in the People's Liberation Army and had a special relationship with Xi Jinping, as their fathers had fought together during the civil war. Both are "red princes" of the Communist Party, the term used for the children of prominent members of the Revolution. Despite being past retirement age, Xi promoted Zhang to the highest military rank in 2022.

War Veteran

A scathing editorial in the military newspaper accused Zhang and Liu of damaging the Party, the state, and the army, and of "seriously undermining the image and authority" of the CMC leadership, i.e., Xi Jinping. This editorial has sparked speculation about whether the power struggle was one of the reasons for Zhang's downfall. The general may have betrayed Xi Jinping's trust by challenging him. He is a charismatic general and enjoyed the aura of being one of the few remaining with real combat experience. A 20-year-old Zhang had fought in the Vietnam War in 1979.

The newspaper The Wall Street Journal It has been reported that Zhang could be accused of selling information about Chinese nuclear weapons in the United States, a charge that is difficult to believe given the strict control China exerts over its senior officials. Espionage accusations are common, as they reinforce the idea that the accused is unpatriotic.

Along with Zhang, General Liu Zhenli, head of the Joint Staff Department of the CMC, has also been dismissed. Liu served as a liaison with foreign forces, and the loss of this link could generate mistrust.

Uncertainty about Taiwan

Analysts disagree on how these purges will affect Taiwan. The United States maintains that 2027 is the target date Xi Jinping has set for the military recapture of Taiwan. The removal of the top brass of the People's Army (PA) could create a power vacuum, forcing a delay in the operation until the chain of command is reestablished. Conversely, others believe that Xi Jinping's absolute control over the military will accelerate the attack by eliminating military experts who might question the intervention. What is clear is that Xi Jinping has sent a direct message that no one is safe in his war against corruption. The Chinese president has decapitated his military leadership: of the seven members of the Central Military Commission (CMC), only two remain: Xi Jinping himself and Zhang Shengmin, secretary of the disciplinary commission, that is, the anti-corruption chief. Last October, the corruption charges against He Weidong, the number two in the military hierarchy and vice secretary, like Zhang, of the CMC, were confirmed. In total, the dismissal of nine high-ranking generals was announced. Two defense ministers have also been dismissed and detained, and in 2023, the Missile Force was decapitated, with eight high-ranking officers sent to prison. In total, the Chinese president has dismissed almost a fifth of all the generals he appointed since coming to power in 2012. Corruption within the military is an undeniable fact, and the campaign initiated by Xi Jinping has had an impact. The primary objective for the Chinese president has been the modernization of the armed forces by equipping them with modern weaponry and professionalizing their members. Corruption created a serious problem of reliability and efficiency, as the buying of positions was commonplace.

But the continuous purges also generate instability. The fall of Zhang and Liu is not an isolated event: their collaborators will be purged after them. Xi has managed to eliminate an entire generation of high-ranking officials, and their successors may be much more loyal to the president and not question his decisions. Behind the purges may also lie the need for the armed forces to remain clear that they answer organically to the Chinese Communist Party.