The meteoric rise of a new leader who could shake up Dutch politics

BrusselsAll polls indicate that the far right of Geert Wilders will win the Dutch elections again This Wednesday, it will consolidate its position as the party with the most support among the Dutch. However, it is expected to lose a slight percentage of seats and faces a very difficult path to govern because all the major parties oppose forming a coalition with Wilders' party, the Party for Freedom, at least during the election campaign.

The meteoric rise of a new political leader, Henri Bontenbal, who promises stability and dialogue, is symptomatic of the country's mood. The Dutch have seen how political forces took more than 200 days to form a government, and the coalition government led by Wilders' party only lasted 13 months because the far-right leader himself ultimately brought it down in an attempt to tighten asylum laws. Instability and government crises have been a constant during that little more than a year of government.

Election projections predict that Botenbal's party (Christian Democratic Appeal), which has only been in politics for four years, will increase its representation from five seats to approximately 23, according to a poll by Dutch public television. The center-right candidate, while still far behind Wilders—dropping from 37 to 34 representatives out of a total of 150—would obtain similar results to the Green and Social Democratic coalition led by Fran, the former Vice-President of the European Commission and one of the main proponents of the European Union's Green Agenda.

Thus, because all the major parties have vetoed Wilders, the candidate who comes in second place currently seems to have the best chance of leading the Dutch government. However, no one dares to speculate much about the political makeup and leadership of the next government because the Dutch electoral system fosters a highly fragmented parliament with multiple political parties, resulting in a very volatile parliamentary makeup.

Therefore, it is crucial that the main political parties in the Netherlands have vetoed Wilders' candidacy. In the previous elections, although he won by a wide margin, the parties that supported him in forming a government stipulated that he could not lead or be part of the executive branch. For this reason, a consensus candidate was chosen: Dick Schoof, a former high-ranking official in the Dutch intelligence services.

This time, however, even the same parties that had supported him are now completely opposed to making the same decision due to the instability that has reigned during the last term and Wilders' lack of dialogue. In fact, the far right has once again brought down a Dutch government over immigration-related issues, just as it had done with previous administrations led by the current NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte.

Few changes in the EU

The last Dutch government, even though led by the far right, has not brought about any major change in the Netherlands' position within a European Union that is rapidly shifting to the right. As usual, Schoof's coalition government has strongly favored austerity measures and opposed the expansionary economic policies traditionally pursued by southern European states such as France, Spain, and Italy. In terms of foreign policy, it has maintained a hard line against Vladimir Putin's regime, which is supportive of Ukraine and a strong advocate for the European Union's rearmament.

The only issue on which the Netherlands might have previously clashed with Brussels is immigration. However, both the European Commission and almost the entire EU have embraced the hardline stances against newcomers in recent years, stances that were previously exclusive to the far right and unthinkable at the EU level. Therefore, the Netherlands has simply been another member state lobbying against migration.

Nevertheless, the Netherlands is expected to remain one of the member states that, despite not being one of the EU's largest (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), often plays a key role in many debates within the corridors of European institutions. Thus, if it has maintained this role despite Wilders' instability, everything suggests that, whoever wins and whoever governs, the Netherlands will continue to be influential in Brussels.