The EU's plan to be prepared for a Russian attack by 2030

BrusselsBrussels and the European Union as a whole are taking the threat posed by Vladimir Putin's regime's expansionism increasingly seriously. Beyond the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has also been involved in violations of European and NATO airspace in recent days, leading several EU leaders to describe the conflict between the bloc and Russia's "hybrid warfare." In this context, the European Commission has been quick to officially present its plan to strengthen the European club's military capabilities and has set 2030 as the deadline for being ready to defend against potential Russian attacks. "It's the plan to maintain peace," European Foreign Minister Kaja Kallas stated at a press conference, warning that the "danger" of Kremlin aggression "doesn't disappear even if the war in Ukraine is over."

The European Commission presented this plan with great pomp—three commissioners appeared at the press conference—and amidst great media expectation. Brussels had been emphasizing for months that this day would be key for the future of EU defense. However, the proposal provides no more specific details than what the executive led by Ursula von der Leyen has already been outlining. In this regard, the most notable point is the creation of a drone wall on the eastern flank of the EU and NATO by the end of 2027, an initiative that has aroused skepticism in Germany and, among others, in France. "No one knows exactly what this drone wall means," criticizes a diplomatic source.

At the last summit of EU leaders, the majority of countries supported the idea of strengthening air security on the eastern flank and adapting defense capabilities to drone incursions. However, several heads of state and government questioned whether security should be increased through this initiative, which Brussels has not yet detailed exactly what it intends to translate into on the ground. In fact, states could join voluntarily, and the resources they allocate would be their own funds, not from the general EU coffers. This is further evidence that the defense of the European bloc is still completely in the hands of state armies and NATO.

The drone wall, however, is just one of the initiatives the EU wants to promote to address the defense shortcomings Brussels believes the bloc has. The European Commission also wants to make it easier for armies to move more freely between member states, boost the fight against cyberattacks, strengthen the air and space shield, and, among other things, acquire more artillery systems. In any case, it has not provided details of the fine print of these strategies and how they will be implemented.

More joint purchases

Brussels' intention is also for the armies of the member states to become increasingly coordinated and, in this way, gain military power and autonomy, especially with respect to the United States. The only concrete proposal in this regard that the European Commission has put on the table this Thursday is to oblige member states to acquire at least 40% of the weapons they purchase within the framework of the bloc's massive rearmament to reach 5% of gross domestic product (GDP) for defense jointly with the entire EU.

According to community sources, even less than 50% of the arms purchases of the member states are made from European companies, although the EU's strategy is also to strengthen the arms industry to gain military independence in every sense. For this reason, the European Commission recalls that the financing in the form of a loan of 150 billion euros that it has made available to the member states is also for the purchase of weapons that are manufactured mainly in European territory.

The same EU sources assure that the increase in military spending will mean that the defense budget of all member states will reach 392 billion euros by 2025, compared to 343 billion last year. With the goal of further growth, Brussels expects the EU to mobilize an additional 800 billion euros in defense over the next four years. "In the next 10 years, Europe will spend 6.8 trillion euros on defense," stated Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius.