Keir Starmer saves his job, for now, after a chaotic day in Downing Street

LondonLike in the old days of Theresa May, Boris Johnson and Liz TrussThe feeling of chaos returned to Downing Street this Monday following the impact of the Jeffrey Epstein papers scandal and the continuous political errors of premier, Keir Starmer, despite his overwhelming majority in the Commons. In just a few hours, the Prime Minister has gone from being almost doomed to receiving the support of all his ministers and, for the moment, salvaging his leadership.

A leadership he attempted to consolidate by addressing the parliamentary group late in the afternoon to apologize and promise a change of course. Another one, because upon returning from the summer holidays he had already used this tactic, which was rendered ineffective by the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, following another scandal related to the purchase of a home and an incorrect tax return. The immediate question, then, is how long Starmer will hold out. Or rather, how long will Labour MPs allow him to continue taking on water in a ship that seems to be adrift under his leadership?

Two resignations within the inner circle of premier in the last 24 hours – Sunday that of the chief of staff, Morgan McSweenyThe resignations of the head of communications, Tim Allan, and the chief of communications, Tim Allan, earlier this morning, pointed to a serious crisis. Both resigned in the wake of the scandal caused by the appointment of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the United States, despite his connections to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

The files on the pedophile Information made public on January 30 by the U.S. Department of Justice revealed the level of complicity between the two men. When he was Secretary of State for Business in 2009, Mandelson shared with the financial critical information from the British governmentFurthermore, both he and his husband also received money from Epstein, he stayed in Epstein's New York apartment, and he visited him on his Caribbean island on numerous occasions. The relationship between the two continued even after Epstein was convicted of soliciting prostitution from minors in 2009.

Despite the many public indications of the relationship between Mandelson and Epstein, Starmer accepted McSweeney's suggestion to appoint Mandelson as head of the diplomatic delegation. Peter Mandelson, 72, is known as the "Prince of Darkness" of British politics. A key figure in Labour's rightward shift and the purge Starmer has carried out against the party's left wing, he has served twice as a minister, under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, and also as a European Commissioner.

But the biggest blow to the sense of chaos has come from Glasgow, where this afternoon the leader of Scottish Labour, Anas Sarwar, called for a "change of leadership in Downing Street." Sarwar did not hold back his criticism of premier"Despite my friendship with Keir Starmer, I cannot ignore the many shortcomings of Downing Street, which jeopardize the health, education, and safety of the people of Scotland. The situation is unacceptable: there have been too many mistakes and broken promises, and his leadership does not guarantee the transparency and accountability that citizens demand."

Scottish Labour performed very well in the 2024 general election in Scotland, and Sarwar believed he was poised to end the Scottish National Party's (SNP) hegemony, in power since 2007, in the national elections on May 7th. However, today's lawsuit is a direct result of polls that are damaging his chances and currently place him in third position, behind the SNP and the Reform Party of the extremist and xenophobic populist Nigel Farage.

The only factor that, for the moment, keeps Starmer's hopes alive of reaching 10 Downing Street by the weekend is the lack of a clear, consensus alternative for the party leadership. The mechanisms to force Starmer's departure are clear but politically difficult to activate. Any Labour MP can put themselves forward as a candidate, but they must obtain 80 public signatures from fellow members of the parliamentary group, unlike the Conservative system, where anonymous letters can trigger the contest.

No friends in the party

If a candidate were to announce that they already have these signatures, the internal election process would automatically begin. Starmer, as the incumbent leader, would automatically become a candidate and could seek re-election, while other potential contenders would also need to reach the same signature threshold. The final decision would rest with a vote of the party members.

Aside from the numerous mistakes made in less than two years in government and the policy shifts on key issues related to social support, one of Starmer's obvious weaknesses is his atypical trajectory within the Labour Party. He entered politics relatively late, in his fifties, after a long career as a lawyer, which left him without a solid network of relationships within the party or prior immersion in grassroots activism in local branches.

Furthermore, his rapid rise to a prominent position in Jeremy Corbyn's shadow cabinet meant he failed to solidify ties with many of the party's current heavyweights, who at the time were at odds with Corbyn's leadership. This trajectory explains why, for now, Starmer lacks a large network of personal allies to draw upon during times of internal pressure.

The aborted revolt before the coup could take place is not yet over, however. Two dates on the calendar could determine Starmer's future. A by-election is scheduled for February 26th in the north of England. A Labour defeat, after having barred Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from running, and a victory for Nigel Farage's Reform Party would reignite speculation. And even if he were to weather this blow, the local elections in England, and the national elections in Scotland and Wales, on May 7 could bring him down if the results, as the polls predict, are catastrophic. Because the predictions are just as bad in Scotland as in Wales, where Labour is currently in power. It could also fall behind the separatists and Farage's party.