The Epstein papers scandal in the UK has left Starmer hanging by a thread

LondonA sense of despair hung over Downing Street on Monday. the impact of the Jeffrey Epstein papers scandalTwo resignations within the inner circle of premier Keir Starmer in the last 24 hours, that of the chief of staff, Morgan McSweenyThe statement from communications director Tim Allan, along with the call made earlier this afternoon from Glasgow by Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar for a "change in leadership in Downing Street," have added enormous pressure to the Prime Minister, whom many are urging to abandon ship before he sinks it further. Starmer is on thin ice. as a result of the scandal surrounding Peter Mandelson, one of the many offshoots in the United Kingdom of the Epstein affair, his entire criminal network, and his links to a global elite.

The files on Epstein Information released on January 30th by the US Department of Justice has revealed the extent of Mandelson's corruption. Among other findings, it shows that when he was Minister of Business in 2009, he shared critical information about the British government with the financier.

Choosing the former minister and former European commissioner as ambassador to Washington in early 2025, without taking into account the danger signs that existed due to their proximity and relationship with the pedophile A confession could prove politically fatal for Starmer. However, despite the enormous uncertainty and pressure at the moment, some of his ministers have publicly come out in support of him, and he could still hold out for a few more days or weeks. A first match ball A by-election could be held at the end of February, and if it goes ahead, a second one could be on May 7, the date of the local elections in England and the national elections in Wales and Scotland.

Scottish Labour leader Sarwar has not held back his criticism of premier“Despite my friendship with Keir Starmer, I cannot ignore the many shortcomings of Downing Street, which jeopardize the health, education, and safety of the people of Scotland. The situation is unacceptable: there have been too many mistakes and broken promises, and his leadership does not guarantee the transparency and accountability that citizens demand.”

This morning, Downing Street asserted that Starmer has no intention of resigning, as he believes he has the full support of his ministers. But if other party heavyweights, or the Welsh government, join Sarwar's call to resign, Starmer will find it very difficult to hold on. The only factor that, for the moment, keeps him clinging to a sliver of hope is the lack of a clear alternative for the party leadership. Today, at 6:00 p.m., the First Minister meets with his parliamentary group in the House of Commons, another potentially pivotal moment.

The mechanisms for forcing Keir Starmer out of the Labour Party leadership are clear but politically difficult to activate. To force his departure, any Labour MP can put themselves forward as a candidate, but they must obtain 80 public signatures from fellow members of the parliamentary group, unlike the Conservative system of anonymous letters. If a candidate were to announce that they already have this support, an internal election process would automatically begin. Starmer, as the incumbent leader, would go directly onto the ballot and could run for re-election, while other potential candidates would also have to reach the same signature threshold. The final decision would rest with a vote of the party members.

A man without friends

Aside from the numerous missteps in less than two years in government and the policy shifts on key social welfare issues, one of Starmer's obvious weaknesses is his atypical trajectory within the Labour Party. He entered politics relatively late, in his fifties, after a long career as a lawyer, which left him without a solid network of relationships within the party or prior immersion in grassroots activism in local branches. Furthermore, his rapid rise to a prominent cabinet member under Jeremy Corbyn meant he failed to forge close ties with many of the party's current heavyweights, who at the time were at odds with Corbyn's leadership. This trajectory explains why, for now, Starmer lacks a wealth of personal alliances to draw upon during times of internal pressure.

While the memory of the Conservatives' continuous psychodramas in the wake of the repeated crises unleashed by Brexit is still fresh in British society – with the regicides by Theresa May, Liz Truss And Boris Johnson—the Labour Party is mired in such chaos. And, for the moment, according to the polls, the biggest beneficiary is the populist and extremist Nigel Farage. Instability returns to Westminster, with the underlying feeling that has never truly faded since 2016.