The end of Kurdish autonomy in Syria

BeirutThe ceasefire announced this Sunday in northeastern Syria puts an end, in theory, to the most intense fighting recorded. since the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regimeBut it doesn't usher in a lasting peace. Above all, it marks the end. of a decade of Kurdish autonomy in the east of the country and the gradual reimposition of Damascus's authority over territory that had slipped from its control since 2012.

In practice, however, the clashes have not entirely ceased. Hours after the truce announcement, the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reported attacks by pro-government militias in Ain Issa, Al-Shaddadi, and Raqqa. In this city, the fighting has been concentrated in the vicinity of Al-Aqtan prison, where Islamic State fighters are being held. The SDF warned of the security danger if the facility falls into hostile hands.

Beyond the persistence of armed clashes, the agreement signed under US mediation between the government of Ahmad al-Sharaa And the SDF agreement marks a political turning point. The text establishes a general ceasefire, the individual integration of Kurdish fighters into the Ministries of Defense and the Interior, and the immediate transfer of the civil and military administration of Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor to the central government. It also stipulates the transfer of control of border crossings, oil and gas fields, and public institutions. The Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria is dismantled. de factoThe signing took place under direct military pressure. Following a 48-hour lightning offensive, Damascus forces advanced into the Euphrates Valley, seizing Tabqa—along with the country's largest military takeover—and key positions in Deir ez-Zor, including strategic energy infrastructure and access to the Al-O oil field. Several local Arab tribes, previously circumstantial allies of the SDF, switched sides, accelerating the Kurdish collapse in predominantly Arab territories. Control of oil

For Damascus, the priority is regaining territorial sovereignty and economic resources. The Euphrates Valley holds most of Syria's oil. Controlling it guarantees essential revenue for an exhausted state and allows the new regime to present itself as the architect of national reunification after thirteen years of fragmentation.

The agreement also enshrines the victory of a centralized state model over the federal project championed by the Kurds. Since 2013, the autonomous administration had developed its own structures for government, security, and justice under US protection and within the framework of the fight against the Islamic State. This political experiment disappears without the text providing any guarantees of future autonomy. In exchange, President Al-Sharaa has decreed the recognition of the Kurds as full citizens, the official recognition of Nawruz—the end-of-year celebration in Kurdish culture—and the authorization of the public use of the Kurdish language, symbolic measures intended to reassure Western partners.

The Kurds lose US support

The Kurdish retreat also reflects the weakening of US support. Washington facilitated the negotiations but avoided intervening to halt Damascus's offensive. Faced with military pressure and tribal defections, Kurdish leaders opted to sign the agreement to avoid open confrontation without external support. Turkey emerges as an indirect beneficiary. The agreement includes several demands, among them the dismantling of Kurdish military structures, the expulsion of non-Syrian members of the PKK, and the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from Kobani, a city that symbolizes Kurdish resistance against the Islamic State. Ankara thus achieves strategic objectives without direct intervention. The agreement foresees the integration of the last Kurdish enclaves into the Syrian state. Hasakah will come under Damascus administration, with the possible appointment of a governor linked to the SDF, while Kobani will have local security forces under state supervision. In practice, central authority will extend to the entire northeast through transitional Kurdish participation agreements.

The ceasefire momentarily freezes the front line, but does not resolve the Kurdish question in Syria. For Damascus, it represents the restoration of state authority. For the Kurds, it marks the end of an unprecedented political experiment and the beginning of a stage characterized by forced integration and uncertain external guarantees. Open warfare has subsided. The dispute over their place in post-conflict Syria continues.