The Donbas region, the main obstacle to the meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the US
Putin will not sign any peace agreement unless Zelensky hands over the entire region to him.
MoscowRussia and Ukraine only agree on what the main point of disagreement is in reaching peace: control of the Donbas regionVladimir Putin refuses to accept any solution that does not guarantee full Russian sovereignty over this territory, while Volodymyr Zelensky is unwilling to relinquish the 20% that the Kremlin's army has failed to capture in four years. This was the starting point for the first talks between the two sides, mediated by the United States, in Abu Dhabi, which began on Friday and will continue on Saturday.
The Russian president has agreed to the new negotiation format convinced that he holds all the cards. He sees the Ukrainian leader as desperate because of the campaign. bombings against the energy systemwhich have left millions without electricity and heating and have made this winter the worst since the start of the invasion. Just in the last few hours, the mayor of Kyiv, Vitali Klitschko, has encouraged those residents who can to temporarily leave the city in search of refuge. Putin, after receiving Donald Trump's emissaries in Moscow for the seventh time, hopes the Americans will use this opportunity to increase pressure on Zelensky and force the Ukrainian delegation to surrender Donetsk and freeze the front line in Kherson. If they do not accept, one of the Russian president's advisors, Yuri Uyshakov, has again threatened to continue fighting until their maximum objectives are achieved. It is no coincidence that the Kremlin has sent a delegation composed exclusively of military personnel to the Emirates to address security issues. Its leader is Igor Kostiukov, head of Russian military intelligence, formerly known as the GRU. It is responsible for assassinations and sabotage in Ukraine, and for destabilization missions in Europe. Experts assert, for example, that this department is behind the execution in Villajoyosa (Alicante). of a Russian helicopter pilot who defected in 2024His Ukrainian counterpart until a few weeks ago, Kirill Budanov, currently Zelensky's chief of staff and a popular figure for the boldness of his intelligence operations against Russian targets, sat face to face with him.
Uncertain security guarantees
However, as thorny as the territorial issue is, nothing indicates that it will be enough for Moscow. Zelensky claims he has a pact with Trump ready to be signed regarding the security guarantees the West will offer in Ukraine after a ceasefire. But the Kremlin has not yet endorsed any of the initiatives on this matter that have circulated in recent weeks. Putin has always opposed any military assistance in Ukraine comparable to NATO membership or the presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian soil.
According to the newspaperFinancial TimesIn Abu Dhabi, Washington and Kyiv have also put forward a limited truce: Russia would halt attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, while Ukraine would stop bombing refineries and tankers belonging to Russia's shadow fleet. However, while Russian crude is suffering from the effects of Ukrainian drones and US sanctions, it is uncertain how this option could benefit Putin, beyond demonstrating flexibility to Trump.
Economic Negotiation
Since the thaw between Russia and the United States, the Kremlin has been conducting negotiations on two fronts: diplomatic rigidity and offers of economic cooperation. Although the public face of the latter strategy, the head of Russia's sovereign wealth fund, Kirill Dmitriev, has often adopted the role of diplomatic disruptor, he is also scheduled to meet in Abu Dhabi with US envoys Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Josh Gruenbaum to discuss business opportunities between the two countries. Money is a sticking point in the path to peace in Ukraine. While Kyiv is demanding that Russian assets frozen by sanctions be used for Ukraine's reconstruction, Moscow has proposed using most of the nearly $5 billion in Russian assets held in the United States to reclaim occupied territories in Ukraine. Zelensky has called this "nonsense."
During Putin's meeting with Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow early Friday morning, the Russian side also reiterated its offer of the remaining one billion dollars of frozen assets in Washington for the brand-new Peace Board created by TrumpThe Kremlin is thus defying Western sanctions, strengthening ties with the White House, and further fracturing the international order dominated for decades by the alliance between Europe and the United States.