The UN celebrates 80 years amid its worst crisis of legitimacy: Will it survive Donald Trump?

BarcelonaThe United Nations will turn 80 on October 24th, immersed in its worst crisis. Not only because of the frontal attack staged on Tuesday by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, with a speech at the General Assembly where he accused him of all the evils and where it certified the distancing of the world's leading power from the multilateral system created after the Second World War. The crisis is also financial and one of resources, because Trump's drastic cuts have forced the Secretary General, António Guterres, to propose a 20% reduction in next year's budget, which will entail thousands of layoffs.

But the crisis is above all one of legitimacy, with more armed conflicts than ever in the world (about 50), one Genocide in Gaza – UN commission of inquiry concludes–, a constant blockade in the Security Council by the veto of rival powers, a global rearmament and The 2030 Agenda for development is clearly doomed to failure"We are reaching a maximum limit of instability," Cristina Gallach, who was assistant secretary general of communications from 2014 to 2017, warns ARA. Gallach particularly highlights the "deep ideological crisis" posed by the anti-immigration and climate change denial message in many countries, and on many Tuesdays.

"There is no doubt that it is the worst crisis, because it comes from within, from a country that is a permanent member of the Security Council and that is the host of the organization," says Gallach, and he bets on the rest of the countries forming a common front in favor of multilateralism, because "global challenges, such as migration, the crisis, the crisis.

Gallach describes Trump's speech as "dystopian," especially because it included "many doses of lies, such as saying that renewable energy is more expensive or that the UN encourages mass migration." A speech that, he says, generated "a lot of surprise and stupefaction" because it went even further than what the president had said until now in his attacks on the UN but was "very well thought out" for domestic consumption. However, International Crisis Group researcher Daniel Forti believes that Trump's words were "critical of the UN but not a death sentence for the organization." And what was feared in the corridors was Trump announced measures to accelerate the United States' withdrawal from the post-World War II forum.

"Back to doing less with less"

Hardly anyone believes Trump's threat to leave the UN—despite having already left some of its agencies, such as UNESCO and the WHO—because he won't relinquish his power on the Security Council. But, from within, the Trump administration is strangling the UN system with cuts and funding cuts. "Virtually no part of the UN will be unscathed by the ongoing cuts," warns Forti, explaining that the budget cuts will result in many layoffs and administrative reforms, but above all, "less support for the civilian population, fewer vaccination campaigns, less money to adapt to the climate crisis." Ultimately, says Forti, the UN "will be forced to do less with less."

The budget presented by Guterres with the 20% cut, which member states must approve in December, proposes a reduction of 2,500 jobs in the Secretariat-General's office. Likewise, "UN agencies, funds and programs, which are funded by voluntary contributions from UN members, are carrying out their downsizing exercises to lay off "hundreds of workers, if not thousands," says the analyst.

And the United States is not alone; in its payments and many countries have reduced their contributions to various agencies. In response to this, Guterres proposed a reform of the UN this year that he has dubbed UN80 and that seeks to save costs, eliminate duplications and "demonstrate to member states that weight can be reduced," says Forti, the UN outside the United States to reduce costs. -BK_SLT_LNA~

Gallach, however, believes that this UN80 "is a rather timid reform and that a much deeper reform is necessary." The long-standing demand for political and decision-making reform, starting with the Security Council, seems more impossible than ever, given that it would have to be approved by the Council itself, where the five permanent members (the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom) have veto power. Last year, a door was opened to this reform when then-US President Joe Biden said he would accept granting two permanent seats to African countries, but the arrival of Trump has spoiled these plans.

For CIDOB researcher Rafael Grasa, however, the UN's main crisis is not the cuts, nor even Trump's threat, but rather the increasingly deep "delegitimization" of the multilateral system. "The UN reaches its eighth anniversary in a situation of delegitimization and crisis," he emphasizes. He doesn't believe it's the worst crisis in its history, but admits that it may be "in terms of delegitimization" due to its inability to ensure the three pillars for which it was created in 1945: peace and security, respect for human rights, and development. In addition to its ineffectiveness, the UN "remains a very Westernized system, highly dependent on European countries and former colonial metropolises," the analyst points out. For Grasa, a step in the right direction would be the election of a woman from the Global South as the next Secretary-General, when Guterres' term ends at the end of 2026.

"After nine Secretaries-General in eight decades, it's time for a woman," notes Gallach, who is part of the women's group. María Fernanda Espinosa, former Minister of Defense of Ecuador and President of the UN General Assembly, is one of the names that has been mentioned the most. However, once again, Trump's policies against decisions motivated by diversity criteria make things more difficult.

And yet another example of dystopia in the Trump era: Gallach recounts that a few months ago, an ICE vehicle (Trump's anti-immigration police) was installed very close to the UN headquarters in New York, which generated some "concern" among the staff. "The Secretary-General had to send a circular to all employees asking them not to leave home without their passport and accreditation" in case they were detained by agents, explains Gallach, who admits that it was "a situation that had never been seen before."