The Brexit failure pushes London towards the EU amid the worst decade of economic growth in a century

LondonLabour wants to turn back the clock ten years, but doesn't know how to do it without being accused of betraying the mandate the British people gave with the Brexit referendum in June 2016The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, outlined on Wednesday what is, so far, the most drastic change of course announcement. since Keir Starmer came to power In July 2024.

During a conference at the London School of Economics, Reeves asserted that the British government is "willing" to lead the United Kingdom towards "much closer" integration with the European Union. During an event organized by think tank Bruegel, Reeves described the current negotiations on youth mobility, food standards, and energy policy as merely a "first phase," noting that the "major prize" for the British economy is the restoration of a preferential relationship with the European Union. A decade later, at least some members of the country's political class are realizing the enormous mistake it was to accept Nigel Farage's theses on extremism and Boris Johnson's opportunism.

Reeves' words have prompted the political and media right in the islands to raise their voices and highlight how they contrast with the position the minister herself held just a few weeks ago at the Davos Forum, where she asserted that the country could not "go back in time." But the truth is that since Starmer won the elections, he has done timid steps towards getting closer to BrusselsAlthough always keeping a wary eye on Farage and the Conservatives. However, the economy isn't taking off, and Brexit, along with all the bureaucracy and trade barriers with its main partner, are severely hindering growth.

In fact, official data released this Thursday confirmed that the last ten years have been the worst in terms of growth in the last century. The UK's gross domestic product (GDP) has been expanding at a rate of 1.1% over this decade. This would be the lowest since the 0.8% growth rate of the 1920s.

From his podium at the prestigious London university, Reeves didn't mince words about the situation. "The economic gravity is a reality. We trade almost as much with the EU as with the rest of the world combined," he said, admitting that no agreement with the US or India will be able to compensate for the loss of the European market. During the Brexit campaign, Johnson and Farage's propaganda tirelessly touted the benefits of Brexit and "Global Britain."

Starmer's weakness

Reeves' change of heart may not be accidental, some analysts say. And it comes after a catastrophic week for Keir Starmer. whose position has been greatly weakened because of the Mandelson scandal and for a internal rebellion that on Monday came within a hair's breadth of ousting him from Downing StreetThe crisis forced the resignation the day before of Morgan McSweeney, his chief of staff and architect of the electoral victory, who vehemently defended maintaining distance from Brussels to curb the rise of the Reform Party, which now leads the opinion polls.

Without McSweeney, the government could therefore pursue a more pro-European policy. Indeed, ministers like Wes Streeting (Health) and David Lammy (Justice) had already broken ranks by suggesting the benefits of a customs union, an idea that now seems to be gaining traction despite the Labour manifesto's red lines. Starmer, however, has opposed it, although during the most intense period of the Brexit struggles he was even in favor of a second referendum.

The opposition was quick to react. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride accused the government of using Brexit as a "scapegoat" for its own economic mistakes, forgetting that under Conservative governments the economy not only failed to grow, but was a complete disaster. For her part, Suella Braverman, a former Conservative who joined Farage's party just three weeks ago, has spoken directly of "the great betrayal of Brexit." But the truth is that the divorce from the European Union has been a populist and xenophobic move that has failed spectacularly in economic terms and has come at the worst possible geopolitical moment for the United Kingdom. The problem for Labour, however, is that Farage's electoral rise seems unstoppable, and the local elections on May 7 in England, and the national elections in Scotland and Wales, may confirm this. In that case, Downing Street would not dare go any further and might even halt the youth mobility project and the integration of food standards and energy policy. The country—with an electoral roll that differs by five million people from that of 2016, and which would not now opt for Brexit—is now paying the enormous price for the divorce with the EU, and Labour is also paying for the fact that throughout this time it has been unable to make the electorate aware of the supposed benefits of leaving. Paradoxically, Farage's xenophobia and populism continue to dominate the political scene in the islands, and society can largely buy into it.