Tehran on alert: the risk of running out of water is imminent

BarcelonaThe reservoirs that supply water to Tehran, the capital of Iran, are on the verge of drying up. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned in July that the capital could run out of reserves by September or October if water consumption is not drastically reduced. The situation is critical in a city of more than 9 million inhabitants, the capital of a province totaling nearly 14 million.

Iran has been suffering for more than five years from one of the most severe droughts in its history: 30 of the country's 31 provinces are affected, and 80% of its reservoirs are practically empty. This summer, compounded by an exceptional heat wave, with temperatures reaching 50 degrees Celsius, and a lack of rain that has reduced rainfall by 44% below the annual average. The outlook is no better: in two decades, the country could lose 35% of its current rainfall and experience a 2.6°C increase in average temperatures.

Experts have been warning of the risk of depleting water resources for decades, but their warnings have been ignored. "When we try to look at the causes of the situation, there is a combination of two main reasons: climate change and poor government management, marked by corruption and the concentration of projects in the hands of a few," Barah Mikail, professor of International Relations at Saint Louis University in Madrid, told ARA.

Illegal wells and laxity of the authorities

Over the past 50 years, 70% of underground reserves have been depleted, primarily due to laxity on the part of the authorities. In Tehran, repeated regulatory violations and the presence of thousands of illegal wells cause the capital's ground to sink by about 25 centimeters annually. Furthermore, industry and a poor wastewater management system contribute to the pollution of many natural waterways, further exacerbating the shortage.

But the main problem is the agricultural sector, which accounts for 90% of the country's water, resulting in the almost complete drying of Lake Urmia, one of the largest in the Middle East, and the disappearance of many rivers. This situation has reduced the productivity of essential crops such as wheat and rice, making Iran more dependent on imports and, consequently, more vulnerable to inflation. According to Mikail, the problem is also political: "The government has tried to reassure farmers by guaranteeing them water for production, even at the cost of compromising future resources."

According to the World Resources Institute, Iran is one of the countries in the world with the greatest water stress: consumes almost 100% of available renewable water resources. An estimated 35% of the population lives in areas with very high levels of water stress. The economic losses could be enormous: experts warn that the annual impact could range between 6% and 14% of GDP in sectors such as agriculture, energy, health, and transportation.

Inequalities at the center

But the problem doesn't affect everyone equally. In Tehran, wealthy neighborhoods in the north rarely experience water shortages, while in the south, many residents rely on tanker trucks and lack adequate storage systems. This inequality reflects the lack of resource redistribution and exacerbates social unrest. According to Mikail, "if the population doesn't have access to a basic need like water, it will put additional pressure on the government."

And desertification is advancing: between 2002 and 2017, more than 12,000 villages disappeared due to lack of water. According to the former head of the country's Environment Department, Issa Kalantari, up to 50 million people could be forced to emigrate in the coming years if agricultural consumption is not reduced.

There is already a massive rural exodus to Tehran, where water consumption per person exceeds 400 liters per day, well above the national average of 250. For Mikail, "it's clear that there is a rural exodus in Iran and that water plays a central role: we're talking about very significant numbers of people." However, this movement could have international implications if neighboring countries begin to receive Iranian refugees.

With a population already exceeding 90 million by 2025, pressure on resources is growing exponentially. Faced with the crisis, authorities have reduced water pressure in the capital and initiated outages of up to 48 hours in several cities. The Taleghan water transmission project to Tehran has also been announced, and negotiations have begun to import water from Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Furthermore, the government declared a holiday on August 6 and ordered the closure of public offices in 16 of the country's 31 provinces to reduce electricity consumption.

An unprepared society

Experts point to wastewater reuse and investment in desalination as viable options. "Iran hasn't run out of water, but rather quality water," Mikail emphasizes. For the professor, the key is structural reforms and more sustainable management, although "Iranian society is not ready for a change of mentality of this magnitude." The regime, in fact, sees the crisis as an opportunity to justify its commitment to civilian nuclear energy, using the necessary argument to operate desalination plants when oil runs out.

Dependence on foreign aid is also limited. "The Iranian mentality rejects any risk from abroad, especially if it involves dependency," Mikail notes. Furthermore, international sanctions and the prioritization of defense—with a large portion of the budget allocated to the military and regional allies—further limit the capacity to invest in water reforms.

Thus, beyond technical measures, the challenge is political and social. Mikail points out that "state policies and statements from senior Iranian officials demonstrate the regime's concern" and that "the fact that there are popular movements complaining about the situation is an indicator of its seriousness." However, religious faith plays a role. "Many Iranians trust that God will find a solution. It's a widespread mentality," says the professor.