Suicide drones take Sudan's war to a dangerous level

CairoIn mid-March, while Sudan's main paramilitary group collapsed in the last positions they had been able to hold in the capital.In Khartoum, its leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, declared that they would not give in and would expand the conflict. Days later, his brother, Abdelrahim Dagalo, who is increasingly acting as the group's de facto commander, issued a similar warning, threatening to extend the war to the north and east of the country, areas that until then had remained relatively isolated.

At first, the Dagalos' proclamations were interpreted as the delirium of someone who refused to accept a setback in their ranks. But in early May, and on an almost daily basis for a week, the Rapid Support Forces began their first attacks on Port Sudan, the army's provisional capital in the far northeast of the country. The secret: drones, most of them suicide bombers, targeted the airport, a naval and air base, large fuel depots, ammunition stores, a power plant, and a hotel.

The series of attacks by the paramilitaries, which caught the army off guard, marked a new turn in the course of the war due to the importance of the target chosen. When the conflict broke outIn April 2023, the army and the military junta that governs the areas under its control moved to this Red Sea city, far from the front lines. Port Sudan is also Sudan's largest port city and has an airport, making it the main entry point into the country for humanitarian aid, military cargo, and diplomatic delegations.

The army and the Rapid Support Forces had used drones since the beginning of the war. But in recent months, their use, particularly by paramilitaries, has increased significantly, rapidly redefining the contours of the conflict. The paramilitaries have Chinese drones in their arsenal, believed to have been received from the United Arab Emirates, their close ally, capable of crossing even a country as vast as Sudan.

Initially, most drone attacks were concentrated on the front lines or nearby areas, but recently, paramilitaries have increasingly directed them against civilian targets. This year, Rapid Support Forces have already carried out dozens of drone attacks, many hitting airports, power plants, and the Merowe hold in the north, which generates around half the country's electricity, causing long blackouts.

The decline of the paramilitaries is increasing drone attacks.

The increase in these paramilitary attacks began after they suffered significant setbacks on the front lines since September and lost control of all of central Sudan. The military junta had also begun developing reconstruction plans, also at the institutional level, in the areas under its control, including the election of a new prime minister in mid-May, for the first time since early 2022. However, the Rapid Support Forces are trying to torpedo this effort to return to normalcy.

From a military perspective, drones allow paramilitaries to slow and hinder the army's advance towards the south and, above all, the west of the country, in the Darfur region, where their stronghold is located. These attacks also allow them to disrupt rival supply lines and are forcing the army to redirect resources to defense rather than attack. Currently, the war fronts have shifted to the vast southern region of Kordofan and the state of North Darfur.

Although they tend to receive less attention, the military has also intensified airstrikes in areas controlled by paramilitaries in recent months. In this case, they have used Turkish, Iranian, and locally manufactured air forces and drones. Many of their attacks have targeted the airport in Nyala, the capital of South Darfur, one of the main entry points for military aid received by the Rapid Support Forces. But the military is also hitting civilian targets in an apparent attempt to complicate the formation of a parallel government by paramilitaries and allied groups.

Amid this exchange of blows, the drone war threatens to further internationalize the conflict. On the one hand, the military junta has blamed the United Arab Emirates for the attacks on Port Sudan and has severed relations with Abu Dhabi, which denies allegation despite evidence pointing to them. Likewise, military officials have become increasingly belligerent toward neighbors like Chad and eastern Libya to allow aid to be sent to the paramilitaries. And some of them, both furious and emboldened, have already opened the door to attacking them directly.