MoscowThe pattern is repeating itself: as happened in August, Vladimir Putin has managed to defuse an ultimatum from Donald Trump to stop the war with a meeting between presidents. But if The Alaska summit ended without progress And with the US leader exasperated by a patronizing history lesson about the unity of the Russian and Ukrainian people, why should the Budapest meeting be any different? That's the conclusion US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reached after speaking with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and finding that Russia's positions haven't budged an inch since then.
The run-up to that meeting was also accompanied by leaks about the alleged territorial concessions Putin was willing to make. White House officials say that, privately, the Russian leader had been open to negotiating a ceasefire in exchange for control of the Donbas, and that this would have spurred Trump to arrange the meeting, but this condition wasn't credible two months ago, nor is it now.
Publicly, the Kremlin maintains its maximalist demands. Nothing has changed since the first call between Washington and Moscow in February. Lavrov made this clear on Tuesday when he stated that halting the fighting on the current front line would mean Ukraine would be "under a Nazi regime." In other words, Putin launched the invasion with the goal of returning Kiev to Russia's orbit and installing a sympathetic government, an outcome that would mean Volodymyr Zelensky's surrender.
Control of the Ukrainian regions that Russia annexed to the Constitution is only one of the "root causes" of the conflict, but by no means the most important. Lavrov listed the remaining demands: "End the genocide." de facto of the Russian and Russian-speaking population" and "to guarantee Ukraine's neutral and nuclear-free status, which presupposes the abandonment of any attempts to attract it to NATO." Ironically, the memorandum by which Ukraine committed to surrender its atomic arsenal and independence, sovereignty and existing borders to the neighboring country was signed in Budapest in 1994.
Why is Putin negotiating despite everything?
So, if Moscow's demands are completely unacceptable for Kiev and Putin shows no signs of wanting to agree to a truce, why does he insist on negotiating with Trump? The Russian president is seeking to reconcile a difficult balance: buy time to continue advancing on the front, weaken military support for Kiev, fracture the unity between the United States and Europe, and rebuild diplomatic relations with the White House.
With the latest call to the US president, Putin reversed weeks of rhetorical rapprochement between Trump and Zelensky, and buried the Promise of long-range Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine, just as the Alaska summit had averted the threat of sanctions. The Kremlin's alleged offer to cede parts of Zaporizhia and Kherson in exchange for Donbas is also an invitation for the Ukrainian president to reject it and antagonize the US leader and his special envoy, Steve Witkoff, who is particularly receptive to the narrative that Russia has legitimate aspirations to the provinces of the province.
Putin is interested in a structured negotiation process with Washington that leaves the European Union out of the picture and in which resolving the war is an additional but not an indispensable condition. However, so far he has encountered the White House's haste to end hostilities as soon as possible. Thus, just as Trump wants peace to do business, Putin is not satisfied with the promise of business to make peace.
Given the self-confidence of the US president and Witkoff, who are accustomed to closing deals face-to-face, the Kremlin leader knows that summits must be preceded by months of technical preparation. In fact, this has been Moscow's position since the spring, and it remains so now. If Putin agrees to meet, it is because he knows Trump is running out of patience and because he calculates that he will succeed, but the reality is that in eight months Russia has not made any real concessions that would bring peace closer.
After all, Moscow's strategy has not changed during this time: Putin will not cancel the Budapest summit, but he won't lower his demands either, just as he opened up to discussing a ceasefire in March, but with impossible demands. Russia will continue to boast that it's the one working hardest for peace and will insist on portraying Ukraine and its European allies as the boycotters of US efforts to end the bloodshed. Whether Trump throws in the towel and gives him free rein or forces Zelensky to accept a fake truce, Putin will have gotten his way.
At least six dead from Russian bombings in Ukraine
This Wednesday, the Russian military bombed several Ukrainian cities in a wave of drone and missile attacks that left six dead, including two children, and caused power outages across the country. Two people died in Kiev, while the other four were reported dead in the surrounding region, according to Ukrainian emergency services.
As usual, the attacks have particularly affected the country's energy infrastructure, leading to emergency power outages in most regions. In Poltava, in the center of the country, oil and gas facilities have also been damaged as a result of the attack.
Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky continues to seek alliances to counter the attacks and remedy Washington's supply cuts. This Wednesday, he is in Sweden to discuss a possible export agreement with the Swedish defense company Saab. It is the manufacturer of the JAS 39 Gripen fighter jet, the GlobalEye surveillance aircraft, missile systems, anti-tank infantry weapons, and other equipment. "The entire meeting will take place at Saab in Linköping," Kristersson said on Swedish radio. "We are going to discuss a possible major Swedish export agreement."