Riots, vote buying, and disinformation: Putin's strategy to block Moldova's path to the EU

MoscowAn alleged Russian plot to provoke mass unrest, dozens of arrests, vote buying, and disinformation campaigns financed by Moscow. Moldova is a country the size of Catalonia and with fewer than 2.5 million registered inhabitants, but Vladimir Putin feels he has his hands full in the parliamentary elections held on Sunday. Russia is pressuring by all means to prevent the ruling party, which has pushed for accession to the European Union, from renewing its absolute majority and for pro-Russian forces to return this ex-Soviet republic to the Kremlin's orbit.

On Monday, Moldovan police arrested 74 suspects of planning riots immediately after the election. Officers identified two members of Russian intelligence who were recruiting criminals and young people linked to sports clubs with the aim of instigating protests demanding the resignation of the pro-European president, Maia Sandu, and discrediting the voting results.

According to Bloomberg, part of the plan would also involve paying for travel for Moldovans living abroad to vote for the pro-Russian coalition, while the BBC has uncovered a Moscow-subsidized network dedicated to creating fake news. Among other unfounded accusations, it published that the president facilitates child trafficking and that, to enter the EU, citizens will have to change their sexual orientation.

That same Monday, Sandu addressed the nation and warned that Moldova's "sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, and future" were "in grave and immediate danger." The Moldovan government estimates that Russia has spent €150 million (1% of the country's GDP) on similar operations aimed at influencing previous elections: the referendum on accession to the European Union, in which he won Yeah With a narrow 50.4% support, and the last presidential elections, in which Sandu repeated her victory.

The Kremlin's interests in Moldova

One of Putin's main short-term interests is to use Moldova to hinder Ukraine's entry into the EU. According to Ukrainian analyst Vitalii Portnikov, speaking to Espreso TV, the Kremlin is financing former Moldovan President Igor Dodon, one of the leaders of the pro-Russian bloc, and oligarch Ilan Shor, a very shadowy figure sanctioned by the West and pulling the strings of the opposition from within the opposition.

Russia is seeking to deprive the current president of her majority in the Parliament, allowing the other parties to block the reforms Brussels is demanding from Moldova to pave the way for Europe. This, in turn, could freeze Ukraine's application, which the EU does not want to separate from Moldova's.

Putin's long-term strategy is for Transnistria, the separatist region in eastern Moldova with a Russian majority and which functions almost as an independent state, to be integrated into Moldova. This move would have very significant polling consequences because currently, the approximately 300,000 Transnistrians do not vote in Moldovan elections, and if they did, they would tip the balance almost irreversibly in favor of the pro-Russian sector.

Threats of invasion

At the start of the war in Ukraine, some voices within the Russian government and military threatened to invade Moldova from Odessa, a Ukrainian port city 50 kilometers from the Moldovan border. Their intention was to join the 1,500 men the Russian army permanently maintains in Transnistria. However, Ukrainian resistance dispelled this possibility in a matter of weeks.

Now, however, it is Russia that claims that Europe wants to "occupy" Moldova. In a statement, the Russian foreign intelligence service claims that NATO countries are amassing troops on the border with Romania and that the plan could be implemented after the elections. The spies attribute this to Brussels' fear of the reaction of "desperate Moldovan citizens" when they learn that they have "grossly falsified the election results." In contrast, the Moldovan government once again accuses Moscow of trying to "intimidate" voters.

Ties with Russia, however

In recent years, Russia has not only allegedly attempted to interfere in the Moldovan elections. It has also threatened to cut off gas supplies in the fall of 2022—as a result, Moldova no longer relied on Russian energy—spurred anti-government protests in 2023, and helped politicians investigated for corruption flee. And yet, between 40% and 50% of citizens still want to maintain ties with Russia.

In an article for the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Maksim Samokurov points out that fatigue from economic hardship, polarization, and fear of impending war are causing Moldovans to seek easy solutions and fear Moscow's retaliation. "People are willing to compromise their country's sovereignty in exchange for uncertain promises from Russia of improved economic conditions and security," the researcher concludes.