Putin tests Trump's patience in Ukraine

MoscowFor the Kremlin, every detail is crucial in peace negotiations, even clothing. In July, the head of the Russian delegation in talks with Ukraine, Vladimir Medinsky, arrived in Istanbul wearing a Team Putin polo shirt, making it clear that he embodied the voice of the Russian president, at a time when Volodymyr Zelensky was attacking him for not daring to meet with him. In August, in Alaska, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov showed up at the summit with the United States wearing a sweater with the initials USSR, rubbing it in that the historical enemy was once again setting foot on American soil, and on a red carpet no less. And this Tuesday, the Russian advisor Kirill Dmitriev strolled through the center of Moscow Accompanied by White House emissaries wearing jackets emblazoned with Putin's phrase, "Russia is not a country that fears anything," while just a few kilometers away, the Kremlin leader threatened to be prepared for war against Europe.

But Russia does fear something: losing the window of opportunity opened by Donald Trump's return to the presidency. That's why the Russian government is publicly putting pressure on him and thanking him for his mediation efforts, so as not to give the impression that Putin rejected the American peace plan during the meeting with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow. It would be "incorrect" to speak of rejection, according to spokesman Dmitry Peskov, even though the two envoys returned to Washington empty-handed. On the contrary, Russia appreciates that the United States is taking its "key proposals" into account, urges them to meet as often as necessary, and asks to be able to work discreetly, without leaks.

Legalizing the territorial gains it has obtained in Ukraine by force was an unthinkable scenario for Moscow a few months ago, and now it perceives this possibility as real. But the Russian leader doesn't want half measures; he wants full international recognition, and at this moment, he still... considers the United States' offer "unacceptable"which has not been made public. Nor do they want to risk the next administration opening Ukraine's doors to NATO, with foreign soldiers ending up stationed on Russia's European border and, in their view, threatening the country's future security.

Putin remains inflexible on these points because he considers them existential, but also because he assumes that the rest of his maximalist demands, such as the imposition of a pro-Ukrainian government, are now impossible. If territorial issues and security guarantees are satisfactorily resolved, he may be able to concede on aspects he has thus far considered non-negotiable.

According to analyst Tatiana Stanovaia, no agreement could emerge from the meeting with Witkoff and Kushner because it wasn't a negotiation. Putin treated them as mere emissaries of Trump and communicated Russia's red lines to them so they could convey them to the president. "Moscow's calculation is simple: now Washington must pressure Zelensky to accept these terms as the only viable path to peace," she concludes. If he fails to do so, he is confident that Zelensky will stop arming Ukraine and pave the way to the battlefield. In recent hours, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio backed Fox News' repeated assertion that the idea of indefinitely funding Kiiv "is not realistic."

Receptive to Russian propaganda

The Kremlin is convinced its propaganda is gaining traction in the White House. This Wednesday, one of the participants in the meeting, Yuri Uyxakov, stated that the recent announcements of Russian conquests had a "positive effect" on the conversation. Putin's advisor reiterated another of the mantras the Russian president wants to instill in Trump: Europe doesn't want to negotiate, but rather wants more war. He lamented that it is the European leaders who are "avoiding any contact" with Moscow and asserted that Russia is "open to dialogue."

The Russian leader finds himself in the desired position: with the upper hand on the front lines, with Europe excluded from the negotiating table, and with the United States committed to a peace process far slower than Trump would like. However, once again, the ball is back in the US president's court: if he accepts the Kremlin's pace, he could end up pushing Zelensky into a bad deal; if he lacks patience, both sides will compete to point the finger at the other for thwarting the agreement. And in that role as judge, it's unlikely Trump will turn against Putin.