Putin's 10 peace conditions that Zelensky cannot accept

MoscowThe roadmap to ending the war that Vladimir Putin's emissaries presented to the Ukrainian delegation at the last meeting in Istanbul is unacceptable to Volodymyr Zelensky. The conditions it sets go beyond the reasons the Russian president cited for launching a full-scale invasion in 2022 and translate into even more territories for Russia than Donbas and Crimea, fewer security guarantees for Ukraine, and Zelensky paving the way for a president in the Kremlin's corner.

The main point for Putin is the withdrawal of the Ukrainian army from the parts of the provinces annexed by Moscow (Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia) that Russian troops do not yet control, before any ceasefire. It also obliges the United States to at least recognize Russian sovereignty, apart from that of Crimea. For Zelensky, however, Russia's territorial gains since 2014 cannot be internationally legitimized, and the starting point for negotiations must be the current front line, always after an unconditional truce.

Ukraine must withdraw its troops to an "agreed" distance from the Russian border, including in regions not claimed by the Kremlin. This would leave the cities of Kiev, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Odessa at the mercy of Putin's troops.

Russia will only accept a temporary ceasefire as a prelude to Ukraine's eventual acceptance of a peace agreement on its terms. During the truce, the Ukrainian army must stop receiving weapons and intelligence from its allies, cannot regroup troops except for withdrawal, and must stop recruiting soldiers and begin demobilizing them. Furthermore, all foreign military specialists must leave Ukraine and cease participating in Kiev operations.

Putin's ultimate goal is for Ukraine to not receive international military protection. That's why the memorandum stipulates that Zelensky must renounce joining any alliance, referring to NATO. However, according to Kiev's document, "Ukraine is not obliged to remain neutral" and membership in the Atlantic Alliance would depend on the "consensus" of its members. In other words, Zelensky opens the door to not immediately joining NATO, but requests "solid security guarantees."

Russia also doesn't want foreign soldiers in Ukraine, even on a peacekeeping mission. However, the Ukrainian leader doesn't trust Putin and insists on the importance of an international contingent that can deter a new Russian attack.

Moscow wants Ukraine to remain defenseless and also sets as a condition for peace a limit on the size of the armed forces and the disbanding of battalions like the Azov Battalion, which the Kremlin considers Nazi. This issue, which was already a point of contention at the Istanbul talks in March 2022, also fails to satisfy Kiev, which demands that its army remain unrestricted for fear of being unable to cope with a new Russian invasion. The Ukrainian memorandum also explicitly calls for "no repetition of aggression."

Putin, who doesn't dare to request Zelensky's dismissal in writing, wants presidential and legislative elections to be held in Ukraine no later than 100 days after martial law is lifted. His intention is to sign the peace treaty with a new president and achieve one of the primary objectives for which he decided to attack Ukraine: the imposition of a Kremlin-friendly government.

To complete this move, he needs to ensure the dissolution of Ukrainian nationalist political groups. According to the Russian president, this is about "prohibiting the glorification and propaganda of Nazism," but in reality, it opens the door to removing any party that does not obey Moscow from the political playing field.

Russia is demanding that all restrictions on its economy be lifted and that the sanctioning countries commit to not imposing them again. Ukraine, on the other hand, is demanding that the lifting be gradual and that sanctions can be reactivated if the Kremlin violates the peace agreements.

Moscow doesn't want to pay a single ruble for the devastated Ukrainian cities and infrastructure. Ukraine, on the other hand, favors using frozen Russian sovereign assets to rebuild the country.

Putin's condensing of all his maximum conditions into a single document hasn't surprised Zelensky, who is convinced that the Kremlin doesn't want to stop the war until its military objectives are achieved. Trump, too, seems to have understood, in recent calls with the Russian president, that his desired agreement is still far off. His envoy, Steve Witkoff, who visited Russia three times in a month and a half, hasn't set foot in Moscow for a month and a half, after Putin scuppered his peace plan.