Putin launches a new offensive in Ukraine to conquer the last strongholds of Donbas

MoscowAfter a winter of extreme cold and historic snowfall, the Russian army has taken advantage of an unusually dry and sunny March to relaunch attacks on Ukraine. The main objective of Vladimir Putin's men is to conquer the so-called "fortress belt" of Donetsk, especially the last two major cities under Kyiv's control: Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. However, Russian advances continue to be very slow and experts rule out that they can occupy all of Donbas by 2026. Furthermore, the first days of the offensive have already resulted in an increase in deaths on the front line that will be very difficult for the Kremlin to compensate for at the current recruitment rate.

The alarms sounded in the middle of the month, when Ukrainian troops detected that Russian assault operations were increasing on all fronts. In four days, more than 600 attacks were recorded, armored vehicles were seen again, and battalions of up to 500 soldiers were deployed, an unusually high number. According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War, all these combined elements demonstrate that think tank Moscow has once again intensified the offensive in eastern Ukraine.The Ukrainian military analysis project Deep State confirms that the Russian army has made progress in the northeast of Sloviansk, near the municipality of Liman, an important enclave for the defense of this fortified city. Preparations have also been observed to launch ground missions from the southeast of Kramatorsk, in Kostiantynivka, another fundamental locality for a possible siege of the last great strongholds of Donetsk. Be that as it may, the fighting has not significantly altered the map of the war, nor is it expected to do so in the short term, because the bloodshed in Russian ranks is proving to be enormous. The Ukrainian General Staff estimates that Kremlin troops suffer an average of more than 1,500 casualties per day. However, unlike in previous years, when salaries and bonuses from various regions of Russia attracted more than a thousand volunteers daily to the conflict, fewer and fewer people are willing to enlist, according to the latest data. The Kremlin wants triumphs

Another element has played against the Kremlin's plans in recent weeks: the shutdown of the Starlink satellite network for its soldiers. The Russian army has difficulties redistributing troops and logistics to the front due to successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the south, in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, which have forced the reinforcement of these sectors and have disrupted the preparations of the Russian commands.

Since February, Elon Musk banned the Russian military from accessing his internet system, Moscow was left without live images from the front line and its drones lost effectiveness. This made it easier for Ukrainian forces to achieve their largest territorial gains since 2023 —more than 400 square kilometers, stated Volodymyr Zelenskyy— and to practically expel Russian soldiers from the Dnipropetrovsk region. However, analysts from the Finnish group Black Bird downplay these operations and the triumphant proclamations of Ukrainian leaders. They point out that the conquests have occurred in rural, very sparsely populated areas, which Russia had not been able to consolidate and without strategic value. In other words, it cannot be called a counteroffensive, but rather limited actions to try to stabilize the front and hinder the Russian campaign.

Even so, symbolically, they do deprive Putin of one of his favorite propaganda arguments to condition negotiations with the United States, now stalled by the war in Iran. If with the revival of the peace process, in the fall of 2025, the Russian president had appeared on several occasions dressed as a soldier to boast of supposed battlefield triumphs, hoping that Donald Trump would see the Russian victory in the war as inevitable, in 2026 he has not yet been seen there.

Putin not only cannot boast of military successes, but one of the trophies he waved most prematurely at the end of the year, the "liberation" of Kupiansk, in Kharkiv, has come to nothing. Z bloggers admit that the city is "totally lost", partly due to the loss of Starlink, but also because the assault teams did not receive reinforcements and became cannon fodder for Ukrainian drones. "All the boys are dead", wrote Russian war correspondent Vladimir Romanov this week.In the fifth year of the war in Ukraine, no one expects major offensives capable of causing dramatic changes on the battlefield anymore. Putin's stubborn deadly strategy and Zelensky's unyielding determined defense anticipate a prolongation of the war of attrition that could only end through a diplomatic path that seems more stalled than ever.