Poland is changing allies: How does this affect Europe?

BerlinPoland, long considered a Central European country, is increasingly looking towards the Baltic Sea. Warsaw has made a geopolitical shift in recent years in the face of the growing threat from Russia. and the divisions within the Visegrad Group – the alliance made up of the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary – over the war in Ukraine. "The Baltic is key to Poland's security, so it must return to a sea of red and white," Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in early October, evoking the colors of the Polish flag.

Historically, Poland's geopolitical vector – situated between Germany (formerly Prussia) and Russia – has been west-east. However, "with an increasingly aggressive Russia, Poland, like other countries in the region, has found that The threats do not only affect the eastern flank and the area beyond its eastern borders. Destabilization measures and possible military scenarios can also occur, and indeed have already occurred, in the Baltic region," explains Kai-Olaf Lang, an expert at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

"That is why Poland, with its political, economic, and military potential, is 'rediscovering' the Baltic Sea as an important area for its national security," adds this expert in European politics. The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the geopolitical situation in the region and, among other things, has made it necessary to seek new defense and security strategies. Warsaw has therefore intensified its military and security cooperation with the Baltic countries, and especially with the Nordic countries.

"With the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO, the Baltic Sea has become a sea of the Atlantic Alliance," explains Joanna Stolarek, director of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Warsaw, which highlights that Poland has become, with its growing presence in the Baltic Council, an important player in the region.

Lang believes that three factors have led to Poland's "Baltic Pivot": the Russian threat; the fact that Poland and the Nordic and Baltic states are natural allies with like-minded policies toward Russia and Ukraine; and that many investments critical to Polish national security and the economy are being made in the Baltic Sea.

The growing Russian threat also affects critical infrastructure in and around the Baltic Sea. The Baltic countries are working together to develop appropriate defense strategies against Moscow.

"Airspace violations, provocations with drones or fighter jets, damage to critical infrastructure such as submarine cables or pipelines, and the trafficking of ghost fleet "Russia's threat, but also possible military action in the air or at sea, have increased Poland's attention to the region," the SWP expert notes.

Disagreements with Hungary and Slovakia

Another factor that has contributed to Warsaw's Baltic pivot is the internal divisions within the Visegrad Group regarding Russia and its aid to Ukraine, since both Hungary and Slovakia have been more reluctant to cut ties with Moscow since the start of the conflict. "This also led Poland to seek new allies who shared a similar vision of the threat posed by Russia and with whom it could cooperate on defense, security, and security policy," explains Stolarek.

The development of the Baltic Sea region, key to Poland's security, is a priority for the Tusk government. "We are becoming, without the slightest exaggeration, a port power in our sea. It is in the Baltic that the largest energy projects in Poland's history are being carried out: wind farms, a nuclear power plant, major infrastructure investments, and the expansion of the port. All of this forces us to think about the sea."

Projects in the Baltic include the Świnoujście liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal, the Baltic gas pipeline connecting Norway to Poland via Denmark, and the construction of a nuclear power plant and offshore wind farms.

Regardless of who wins the 2027 Polish elections, Poland's Baltic shift will be long-lasting, the two experts agreed. "Cooperation with the Nordic and Baltic countries will not be disrupted by internal political changes, as it focuses on security and defense. These are areas where there is consensus within Polish politics, despite polarization on other issues," Lang concluded.