France prepares for hybrid attacks from Russia on critical infrastructure

BrusselsThe concatenation of sabotage, cyberattacks and drone incursions attributed to Russia is exposing the seams of the European security architecture. Faced with an intensification of these episodes, the continent's governments have begun to consider how to respond without waiting for Moscow to cross any red line.

In this context, the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has called for France's infrastructure to be prepared against Moscow's hybrid attacks. "The Russian hybrid threat to Europeans and France has intensified" in recent weeks, he asserted this Friday from the Élysée. For this reason, he has asked the executive to prepare a plan to protect the country's "critical infrastructure".

After meeting with the main party leaders and candidates for the 2027 presidential elections, Macron has noted that "the nature of Russian aggression is changing". Episodes such as the attempted drone attack against Leipzig airport, in Germany, or the drone attack on a train on the border between Poland and Ukraine illustrate, in the leader's view, this shift and confirm that the situation is "serious".

Macron attributes the attacks to a desire by the Kremlin "to intimidate us and undermine the effort to support the Ukrainians". But he assures that he will not back down in the face of threats. "We do not feel intimidated because we know that our security is at stake in Ukraine," he concluded.

Thus, he detailed that the protection plan against drone attacks and cyberattacks will also protect the "most sensitive" sites of the French industrial and technological base. France is also working to combat foreign interference and cyberattacks by strengthening existing mechanisms, such as Viginum, the body created five years ago to detect and combat information manipulation operations.

Hours earlier, the French Interior Minister, Laurent Nuñez, had explained on X that the French authorities were coordinating with local actors to mobilize the necessary resources in terms of defense to "be prepared" for "new threats".

Macron's statements come at a time when Russia's hybrid attacks have overshadowed the debate on security on the continent due to a succession of incidents on NATO's eastern flank. In just three days, at least four incidents were recorded. In Lithuania, authorities shot down a drone coming from Belarus over Pratkunai, while in Poland an unmanned aerial vehicle was recovered on the Baltic coast. A Russian drone impacted a Ukrainian passenger train just two kilometers from the Polish border. And in Denmark, a Russian ship fired two flares at a Danish military helicopter off the country's south coast, one of which passed a short distance from the aircraft.

Several heads of state have raised their voices in the face of the intensification of hybrid attacks coming from Russia. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned this Thursday that the Kremlin was preparing missile attacks against NATO. "We are not seeking war, but if anyone dares to attack us, they will receive a decisive response," he stated.

The European Commission has also raised its tone against Russia this week. During the State of the Union address, President Ursula von der Leyen stressed that the hybrid threats facing Europe are "less and less hybrid and more and more threats." "Today peace is under threat," she went as far as to state, in reference to the recent incidents in Denmark, Lithuania, and Poland. One of the most forceful voices against Russia has been that of Kaja Kallas, head of European diplomacy, who on Tuesday advocated for applying "more pressure" on Moscow, referring—above all—to economic sanctions; limiting the issuance of visas to Russian citizens, and shielding the European information space.

Faced with this new reality, both Brussels and the member states are looking for recipes to deal with Russian threats. But they disagree on what the response should be. As the Polish prime minister explained, the goal of the Russian strategy is to "weaken the integrity of NATO" and convince the members of the Alliance that Article 5 of the treaty (which establishes that an armed attack against one ally is an attack against all) is "more theoretical than practical." Tusk pointed to a problem: hybrid attacks leave the states that receive them in a dilemma. They do not reach the threshold of an armed aggression that would activate the debate on Article 5, but neither are they incidents that states want to leave without a response.

With this in mind, Von der Leyen proposed on Wednesday to create a European response mechanism to hybrid threats, inspired by Article 4 of NATO, which allows allies to convene consultations when they consider their security to be threatened. The proposal of the Commission president, yet to be specified, would allow a member state to convene the others in the face of incidents that, without reaching the level of an armed aggression, put the security of a state at risk.