Lecornu will approve the accounts by decree and faces censorship

ParisThe newspaper Le Monde Just a few days ago, I lamented that French politics has become stuck in a Groundhog Day scenario, trapped in an endless loop trying to pass budgets that never actually get voted on. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu confirmed this Monday that, after months of negotiations and parliamentary debates, he will ultimately not submit the 2026 budget to a vote in the National Assembly. Lacking a parliamentary majority, the government will pass it using a constitutional tool—the now-famous Article 49.3 of the Constitution—which allows for the passage of important laws without parliamentary approval. However, this also exposes him to a vote of no confidence.

Since 2023, all budgets have been passed using Article 49.3, and the two previous prime ministers, François Bayrou and Michel Barnier, ended up falling either through a vote of no confidence or a vote of confidence after failing to secure a parliamentary majority to pass the budgets. The enormous parliamentary fragmentation translates into unprecedented political instability in the Fifth Republic. with five prime ministers since May 2022Lecornu is repeating the same script as his predecessors. The prime minister announced at a press conference this afternoon that he will invoke Article 49.3 "with a certain sense of regret and a touch of bitterness." Lecornu, a close ally of President Macron, had publicly pledged not to use this constitutional tool when he was appointed just three months ago. He is committed to dialogue.

After the failures of previous heads of government, he wanted to change strategy and opted for genuine dialogue with other parties rather than imposing his will. But he has encountered the same scenario as his predecessors: the impossibility of reaching an agreement with the parliamentary forces and the urgent need for a budget to reduce a runaway deficit. Lecornu is expected to formally invoke Article 49.3 this Tuesday during the plenary session in the National Assembly. The head of government has prioritized a budget that reduces the public deficit to 5% of GDP and includes concessions from the Socialist Party in an attempt to avoid a vote of no confidence. "There is no secret agreement" with the Socialists, Lecornu asserted, despite evidence of intense negotiations.

Invoking Article 49.3 is more than just a decree, because the National Assembly cannot then suspend or amend the law. It can only prevent the law—in this case, the budget—from being implemented by passing a motion of no confidence. Sébastien Lecornu will have to face this vote this week, because both Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally and Jean-Luc Mélenchon's radical left La France Insoumise have already announced they will present motions of no confidence on Tuesday. Le Pen has accused the government of having "bought off" the Socialists and of having drawn up a budget "that will result in higher taxes and more debt."

Avoid censorship

Lecornu has been tempted to use another formula to pass the budget without parliamentary approval, through a kind of government decree—a tool provided for by law but never used—but has ultimately opted for Article 49.3 of the Constitution, hoping that the concessions to the Socialists will be enough to prevent any motion of censure. Everything will depend on whether parties like the Republicans and the Greens support the censure. According to analysis in the French press, it is unlikely that the government will be censured.