Lecornu is confident of forming a government "within 48 hours" and discourages the possibility of elections in France.

ParisJust hours before the deadline this afternoon in France for reaching an agreement between the parties to form a government and make the approval of the budget possible, the resigned Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, issued a message of optimism. In a brief public statement, Lecornu asserted that after speaking with the majority of the parties, he sees a "will" to approve the budget before the end of the year. "There is a clear convergence that removes the prospect of a dissolution of the National Assembly," he asserted. That evening, in a television interview, he expressed his conviction that he will be able to appoint a new government "within 48 hours."

President Emmanuel Macron gave Lecornu until Wednesday to continue negotiating with the parties and suggested that he would call early legislative elections if the attempt to reconcile positions on the budget and the formation of a government failed. But the Prime Minister has asked for an extension of that deadline, and, as he explained on television, Macron had granted him more time.

In recent hours, the hypothesis of a left-wing government, led by a socialist or green prime minister, has gained significant traction. The left-wing parties, which ran in the 2024 legislative elections united under the banner of the New Popular Front, won the elections, but Macron has consistently refused to appoint a left-wing prime minister. All the heads of government in the last two years have been Macronists, from the right or center-right. Now he could give them a chance, although it is not clear that a progressive government could survive a vote of no confidence in the Assembly.

Cohabitation government

Socialist leader Olivier Faure on Wednesday defended a cohabitation government composed solely of left-wing parties and therefore ruled out an executive composed of Macronists and Socialists. There is only one exception: he would accept Macronists as the ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense, as these are areas that essentially fall under the jurisdiction of the President of the Republic.

In principle, France Insoumise, the radical left-wing party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, would not form part of a left-wing government, but would not censure him either. "We have never been so close to having a left-wing and environmentalist prime minister," asserted Green Party leader Marine Tondelier after meeting with Lecornu.

Another clue that the future government could be left-wing is that Lecornu has spoken of reducing the deficit to 5% of GDP by 2026. This is a higher figure than that projected in François Bayrou's budget (4.6%). This means that Macron and Lecornu are now willing to accept more modest cuts in public spending in exchange for getting the budget passed by the Catalan Parliament. This is another concession to the progressive parties, which have called three days of strikes and protests in recent weeks against the cuts planned in the previous draft budget.

Pension reform

There is also another issue on the negotiating table: Macron's controversial pension reform, approved in 2023, which extended the retirement age to 64. According to the acting Minister of Education and former Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, the Macronists might be willing to suspend the reform as a concession to the left, which has been demanding its repeal for years. However, the Socialist leader tempered expectations after his meeting with Lecornu. "We have no guarantee of a suspension of the pension reform," he asserted.

The reform was approved when Borne was Prime Minister. The fact that she raised the possibility of leaving it on hold has drawn criticism not only from the right but also from the presidential bloc. According to the French press, the current acting Minister of Education floated the idea without having discussed it with either Lecornu or President Macron.

In any case, everything is open, and it is not ruled out that the new government will be made up, as until now, of Macronists, centrists, and the right. In that case, the Socialists could have agreed to concessions in exchange for not censuring the executive and approving the budget. According to the Ministry of Economy, pausing the reform would cost 500 million euros in 2026 and another 3 billion in 2027. Meanwhile, the far right of Marine Le Pen, who has refused to meet with Lecornu, insists on demanding legislative elections and increases its demand for legislative elections. "I censure everything. The joke has lasted long enough. It's time to blow the whistle for the end of the patio hour," Le Pen said in a message to X. Her number two and president of the party, Jordan Bardella, has denounced that Macron "is trying to buy time and maintain his power at all costs."

If the President of the Republic ultimately decides to call legislative elections in the coming weeks, the leader of the National Rally would be barred from running and would no longer be a member of parliament because she has been sentenced to five years of disqualification for misusing European Parliament funds. The appeals process will take place between January and February.