Israel is selling the war against Iran as a military success, even though it is beginning to admit that the outcome is uncertain.
In the early days there was talk of a quick victory, but now it is being questioned whether the regime of the aitaolás can fall.
JerusalemSince the start of the war against Iran, the Israeli government has presented it as a necessary response to an existential threat. According to the official narrative, eliminating the Iranian nuclear and ballistic threat and creating the conditions to weaken the Tehran regime are top priorities. But two weeks after the start of the conflict, the situation remains unresolved: Israel claims significant military gains, while the strategic outcome is still uncertain. Publicly, the war is going well; privately, doubts are more apparent.
The initial assessment of the offensive is, according to the Israeli army, a success. The Israel Defense Forces claim to have attacked strategic infrastructure and reduced Iran's response capacity, without significant civilian casualties within Israel. According to the latest official figures, fifteen Israelis have died since the start of the war, while the number of casualties in Iran exceeds 1,300 and in Lebanon, 680.
Israel's official public broadcaster Kan has reported that nearly 4,000 targets have been attacked and some 200 missile launchers destroyed. According to these figures, Iran now possesses only a third of the launchers it had before the war.
From the government's perspective, the message is clear: the war is yielding results. A video released Thursday night by the government press office, featuring epic music and footage of military operations, highlighted the destruction of more than 250 Iranian drone launchers, attacks on facilities linked to nuclear weapons development in Tehran, and bombings of Hezbol infrastructure.
Evolution of discourse
However, the official narrative has been evolving. While in the early days there was talk of a swift and decisive victory, increasingly some officials are suggesting that the end of the war is uncertain and are warning that toppling the ayatollahs' regime will depend largely on the Iranian people. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself has stated that the Israeli strategy is to create "the optimal conditions" for Iranians to fight against the regime, but on Thursday, for the first time, he admitted the limitations of this approach. "You can lead someone to water, but you can't force them to drink," he explained.
Within the Israeli government itself, a certain degree of caution has prevailed for days regarding this second phase of the war. Several officials have admitted in internal conversations, reported by Israeli media outlets such as Kan and Channel 13, that there are no guarantees the war will bring down the Ayatollahs' regime. Some ministers, who wish to remain anonymous, have suggested that a political collapse in Tehran could take months or even a year, even if the military campaign ends sooner.
“On a purely military scale, there is broad consensus among the government and the public that the war has been very successful so far,” Chuck Freilich, former deputy national security advisor in Israel, explained to ARA. “But doubts are beginning to emerge among the population as to whether the broader objective, regime change, is truly achievable.” For now, the Israeli strategy consists of maintaining constant military pressure on Iran, a regime that seems to be holding on despite the loss of its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the deaths of dozens of military commanders, academics, engineers, and civilians.
Support for the war
Despite these strategic uncertainties, domestic support for the war remains very high. A recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute indicates that nearly 93% of Israeli Jews support the military operation, while support is much lower among Arab citizens, who overwhelmingly prefer a ceasefire. Trust in Netanyahu also remains relatively high, with approximately 74% support among Jewish voters.
“I love this country, and I believe we are defending ourselves,” affirms Niv, a twenty-year-old on Jaffa Street, one of Jerusalem’s main thoroughfares. “If we have to go to the shelters, we’ll go. It’s no big deal.” “We are the best country in the world. Israel can take on any enemy, and we are proving it,” adds his friend. Despite this widespread support, voices expressing doubt are also beginning to emerge. “I think information is being withheld from us,” explains Yael, a Jewish resident of the city. “How is it that sometimes the air raid sirens don’t sound? Or that we don’t know how many missiles actually hit?”
In recent days, the Israel Defense Forces have acknowledged several "isolated failures" of the early warning system. On Tuesday, for example, two rockets fired from Lebanon toward central Israel, home to more than four million people, did not trigger the sirens. In Jerusalem, the alarms did not sound for four days, although residents constantly heard missile intercepts in the sky.
"The alerts fail? But have you seen the number of missiles coming toward the country? Of course they can fail, but the Dome works, that's clear," explains Mostafa, a mobile phone vendor in the old city. "Bibi has everything under control. I think most of us think so." Long live Israel"," he adds, referring to the Israeli prime minister.
In this context, some analysts believe the government is trying to prepare public opinion for a longer war than initially anticipated. On Wednesday, the Home Front Command warned the population that "difficult days" still lay ahead due to Iranian missile attacks and Hezbollah fire from Lebanon, and confirmed that security guidelines and the state of alert remained unchanged. Eight months after the open war against Iran last June, Israel has once again begun a new conflict, even more intense and widespread throughout the region, against its adversary and with arguments very similar to those used then.